Sorry - I screwed up badly. Cut and
pasted the wrong values for the function. The actual numbers are
:
=BINOMDIST (number of selectees [0-10],
number of slots [10], percent of pool [n/160], FALSE (non
cumulative)) - this is the probability of getting exactly the
number of selectees, given the number of tries (slots) and how
large your group is relative to the pool size.
Cisco - 13 - 8.1% of pool, 37.9% of
having exactly 1 , 19.3% of having 2 (sum of 2-10 selectees).
Ericsson - 6 - 3.8%, 26.6,5.2
Futurewei - 10 - 6.3%, 35, 12.6
Google - 4 - 2.5% 19.9, 2.5
Huawei - 28 - 17.5%, 31/54.4
Juniper - 10 - 6.3%, 35, 12.6
Mozilla - 3 - 1.9% , 15.8, 1.4
Nokia - 3 - 1.9%, 15.8, 1.4
ZTE - 6 3.8%, 26.6, 5.2
(Huawei + Futurewei) 23.8% 20.7,
72.7
Abject apologies. And thanks for
John's note that made me go back and check. I'll revise my email
to Toerless with new values shortly.
John - For Huawei + Futurewei, the
entire row looks like:
| Number of Nomcom Members | |||||||||||||
| Percent of Volunteer Pool | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | >= 2 | >=1 |
| 23.8% | 6.6% | 20.7% | 29.0% | 24.1% | 13.1% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 72.7% | 93.4% |
The >= 2 is the sum of 2-10 columns
. Leading to the MM >> NN. Basically, you've got 10 tries
to get 2 or more selectees. So any result from 2-10 represents 2
actual selectees.
Note that the BINOMDIST function does
the calculation with replacement so there is some slight upward
bias.
Mike
On 6/30/2020 12:12 AM, Michael StJohns
wrote:
Taking only the groups with 3 or more volunteers you get:
Cisco - 13 - 8.1% of the pool - 24.2% chance of having 1, 65.6% of 2
Ericsson - 6 - 3.8% of the pool 37.5/26.9
Futurewei - 10 - 6.3% of pool 31.5/51.5
Google - 4 2.5% 34.9/14.6
Huawei - 28 17.5% 3.2/95.9
Juniper - 10 6.3% 31.5/51.5
Mozilla - 3 1.9%, 30.9, 9.1
Nokia - 3 1.9% 30.9/9.1
ZTE - 6 - 3.8% 37.5/26.9
(Huawei + Future Wei ) 23.8% .6/95.6
Using the current model, Huawei with 17.5% of the pool has only a (100 - 95.9 - 3.2) .6% chance of having no volunteers selected, a 3.2% chance of having 1, and a 95.9% chance of having 2. If Futurewei and Huawei are counted as separate companies, together they have about a 50% chance of having 4 members between them (estimate rather than doing the calculations).
Cisco and Juniper each have more than a 50/50 chance of having two members and a >80% chance of having at least one each.
