On 6/30/2020 10:44 AM, Michael StJohns
wrote:
The raw probabilities are the same. E.g. Ptot ~= 1 - ((1-1/160)10) or about 6% chance for any individual in the pool being selected. Its approximate because the pool actually shrinks with each pick changing the probability upwards for each subsequent pick. For Huawei+Futurewei, let's assume they end up with two members (as that's a near 100% chance). The Ptot for each would be ~= 1-((1-1/38)2) or about 5%. Not really a great difference. (It's actually %5.19% * 95.6% or 4.96% plus .6% * 2.6% - call it 5%).
Note: Figure the probability of not being selected N times (which is (1-Psel)^N) and subtract that from 1 to get the probability of being selected at least once.
Sorry - updating. the raw probabilities remain the same. The
Huawei+Futurewei numbers are
5.19% * 72.7% + 2.6% * 20.7% - > ~4.3% chance of a given H+F volunteer being selected vs a ~6% chance of someone either unaffiliated or in a group of 2 or less being selected.
Mike
