El 23/3/20 18:41, "ietf en nombre de Fernando Gont" <ietf-bounces@xxxxxxxx en nombre de fgont@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> escribió:
Jordi,
On 23/3/20 13:52, JORDI PALET MARTINEZ wrote:
> Hi Fernando,
>
>
> El 23/3/20 17:35, "ietf en nombre de Fernando Gont"
> <ietf-bounces@xxxxxxxx en nombre de fgont@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> escribió:
>
> On 23/3/20 12:47, JORDI PALET MARTINEZ wrote:
>> It all depends on how smart are our governments. If they seriously
>> confine the people, we will get to normal earlier.
>
> It's not just government. It's government + people. And for obvious
> reason, that's a distributed problem that is non-trivial to address.
>
> In some countries, government mandate is obeyed by most of the people
> ...
Recommendation != enforcement. If you don't enforce it (i.e., jailtime
|| fines), you cannot rely on it. That's reportedly one of the issues
with the lockdown in Italy. (And we had the same here in Argentina
before they enforced it -- people just took the chance to go travel to
the seaside, as if the lockdown == vacation period).
We are saying the same then.
>> The economic impact will be much lower for all.
>
> Lockdown implies that the economy is essentially stopped. I don't
> think we'll have less than 1-month lockdown. And where it hasn't
> started, it'll get worse (peeking at current flights might me an
> unfortunate of spread, even at larger scale. e.g., as of today, there
> seem to be flights virtually everywhere:
> https://www.flightradar24.com/-
>
> There are different ways to do that confinement. I think the way is
> being done in Spain is sufficient.
What's the rationale and data that supports that claim?
Because it doesn't collapse the supply chain and it seems (hopefully) that we have the early signs of the success. I will tell you next week. I prefer not to be optimistic too early on this.
We're not talking about packet drops. We're talking about *deaths*.
I know and unfortunately (I will love to be wrong), I give for granted that we will see 5.000 deaths in the next few weeks. Now the figure is 2.200.
[...]
>> Doing that more than a couple of months will be really bad for
>> every economy, supply chains and that means citizens. We can’t (and
>> must not) stop the world.
>
> It seems that what WHO et al are advocating is "stay home", except
> for essential services (normally food, health, fuel, security/police,
> high ranks at government, and not a lot more)
>
> Exactly. Work from home if you can.
No. Work from home unless your work is an essential service.
We are saying the same. What I mean is that people carrying food can't work from home. There are many services that may look "non-essential", but if they don't work, then you can't get food or medicines. Even volunteer people carrying food and medicines to elders (without being too close to them) so to avoid them going to the pharmacy or supermarket.
> Don't work outside of home unless is essential.
Exactly.
> [...]
>> Despite that, I still think we are talking about this too early. I
>> think we need to wait until around May-June.
>
> That implies that people should wait till about a month before the
> IETF to make the necessary arrangements. Besides, that not only
> implies that the crazyness is over (I wished, but I'm not that
> optimistic), but also that individuals and companies gor their own
> stuff in order to be allowed/able to travel to e.g. attend a meeting.
> Not to mention that with all the cancellations that have occurred
> (and that probably will for some time), when flights get back to
> "normal", demand and prices might be interesting.
>
> In this case I don't have my flight to Madrid, obviously, but many
> folks may have already booked it. The airlines have canceled flights
> for 1-2 months (including March), but it looks like at the moment, if
> you have a May-June-July flight, is still up. This is my own case
> with several airlines. None is yet cancelled, so I will not need to
> rebook and I guess some folks coming to IETF108 may also have their
> flights booked already.
If you had to book an overseas flight, plus accommodation, in this
situation... would you?
I did last week for another event 10 months from now and I will find another flight in the next few days for IETF110 (March 2021). I usually book my flights around 11-12 months in advance (as soon as they become available) so I can get them cheaper.
Canceling meetings is indeed unfortunate. When when the price of not
doing the right thing is human lives, that's a different story.
--
Fernando Gont
SI6 Networks
e-mail: fgont@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
PGP Fingerprint: 6666 31C6 D484 63B2 8FB1 E3C4 AE25 0D55 1D4E 7492
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