On 23/3/20 12:47, JORDI PALET MARTINEZ wrote:
It all depends on how smart are our governments. If they seriously confine the people, we will get to normal earlier.
It's not just government. It's government + people. And for obvious reason, that's a distributed problem that is non-trivial to address.
The economic impact will be much lower for all.
Lockdown implies that the economy is essentially stopped. I don't think we'll have less than 1-month lockdown. And where it hasn't started, it'll get worse (peeking at current flights might me an unfortunate of spread, even at larger scale. e.g., as of today, there seem to be flights virtually everywhere: https://www.flightradar24.com/-
If a country decides to ignore that, then is fine to avoid travelers from that country.
Are you assuming that Spain will ban countries if they don't react according to some standards? On what basis?
I’m not saying that until there is an efficient vaccine, we will get 0 impact with more Covid19 infections, but not at the level that we congest our health systems and disallow traveling.
This is what we have at the time of this writing. And I understand that we do protocols, not epidemiology.
Doing that more than a couple of months will be really bad for every economy, supply chains and that means citizens. We can’t (and must not) stop the world.
It seems that what WHO et al are advocating is "stay home", except for essential services (normally food, health, fuel, security/police, high ranks at government, and not a lot more)
We must get to normal as fast as we can, and the only way is confinement. I was not believing on that originally, but now it is clear to me.
We don't control this. And the number of flights on https://www.flightradar24.com/ suggests that people don't even stay in their cities. Unless lockdown is *enforced*, you're just "hoping".
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Despite that, I still think we are talking about this too early. I think we need to wait until around May-June.
That implies that people should wait till about a month before the IETF to make the necessary arrangements. Besides, that not only implies that the crazyness is over (I wished, but I'm not that optimistic), but also that individuals and companies gor their own stuff in order to be allowed/able to travel to e.g. attend a meeting. Not to mention that with all the cancellations that have occurred (and that probably will for some time), when flights get back to "normal", demand and prices might be interesting.
As much as I would like this crazyness to be over, I can't be as optimistic as you.
Thanks, -- Fernando Gont SI6 Networks e-mail: fgont@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx PGP Fingerprint: 6666 31C6 D484 63B2 8FB1 E3C4 AE25 0D55 1D4E 7492
