The confinement in Spain is for one more week (started one week ago already), but I predict that will be extended 2 more weeks and I think is the right thing to do now. May be even 3-4 weeks (so in total 1.5 months).
I will like to be optimist at the time being, especially after having taken 20 years to organize it in Madrid!
I think it all depends on what is the status by mid-April, maximum end of April, and not just in Spain.
If this confinement works in Spain, and other countries (especially those which have participants of IETF), also do a similar 1-2 months confinement NOW, then borders could reopen and everything should be fine by end of May.
I think the decision should be taken at that point.
However, if any country is not doing the confinement, I will say, that country is going to be banned by the other countries, in order to avoid the Covid19 coming back.
The situation in Spain has been worst because the government has not taken the right decision:
1) Initially they brought back from China Spanish citizens and quarantined them mandatorily. Fine!
2) However, surprisingly, when was clear that in Italy was widely spread, they didn't take any measurements to ask for mandatory quarantine for those coming from Italy. *Crazy and irrational* no sense compared to 1.
Instead, countries from Africa and LAC, since the very early stages, have closed the borders to citizens from all over EU (and China). China itself is doing now the same. I'm convinced now that this is the right way to stop a wider spread.
Regarding the situation in Spain, I'm sure that by the next week or so, we will reach the peak, with about 35.000-40.000 infected and probably 5.000 deaths (right now is about 1.100) and then will start going down very quickly if the confinement continues for 1-2 more weeks.
Regards,
Jordi
@jordipalet
El 20/3/20 21:50, "ietf en nombre de Carsten Bormann" <ietf-bounces@xxxxxxxx en nombre de cabo@xxxxxxx> escribió:
On 2020-03-20, at 21:42, Ron Bonica <rbonica=40juniper.net@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> Folks,
>
> Is anybody planning contingencies for a fully remote IETF in July? (I don’t mean to be a pessimist, but planning for a worst-case scenario is never a bad idea).
I personally believe there is not more than a 5 % chance of the physical meeting actually taking place. I would *love* to be surprised.
Grüße, Carsten
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