On 3/23/2020 12:48 PM, Carsten Bormann wrote:
In summary, there are three scenarios: (1) miracle. We learn something very significant (effective cure, protection). Not plannable. (2) disaster. Millions die, but, hey, the survivors will see the sun again within a couple of months. (3) flatten the curve. A year or so, until we have a combination of herd immunity and a vaccine.
I'm trying to avoid getting too far off into the weeds, but there's a fourth option that carries a fair amount of hope for doing this in single-digit months instead of double-digit months (but I don't think "four months" is inside even the most optimistic envelope). I'll just drop a couple of links here instead of trying to summarize the argument itself beyond: we need to start aggressive, mandatory, and repeated testing of apparently healthy individuals.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/20/eradicated-coronavirus-mass-testing-covid-19-italy-vo https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/23/mass-testing-is-only-sustainable-solution/ /a
