Hi Fernando,
El 23/3/20 17:35, "ietf en nombre de Fernando Gont" <ietf-bounces@xxxxxxxx en nombre de fgont@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> escribió:
On 23/3/20 12:47, JORDI PALET MARTINEZ wrote:
> It all depends on how smart are our governments. If they seriously
> confine the people, we will get to normal earlier.
It's not just government. It's government + people. And for obvious
reason, that's a distributed problem that is non-trivial to address.
In some countries, government mandate is obeyed by most of the people ...
> The economic impact will be much lower for all.
Lockdown implies that the economy is essentially stopped. I don't think
we'll have less than 1-month lockdown. And where it hasn't started,
it'll get worse (peeking at current flights might me an unfortunate of
spread, even at larger scale. e.g., as of today, there seem to be
flights virtually everywhere: https://www.flightradar24.com/-
There are different ways to do that confinement. I think the way is being done in Spain is sufficient. I saw in the TV news that people in NY is still going sport in parks. That's not a good way I believe.
> If a country decides to ignore that, then is fine to avoid travelers from that country.
Are you assuming that Spain will ban countries if they don't react
according to some standards? On what basis?
Not just Spain, it is *right now* an EU order. All the EU borders are closed to non-citizens/residents for a month. This may be extended if needed for specific time or specific countries, according to the explanations provided. There is no need to setup worldwide standards on this. The EU will take their own decision, the same way any other country does. The difference is that in this case it is a group of 27 countries (and some others that follow the same indications by their own).
> I’m not saying that until there is an efficient vaccine, we will get 0
> impact with more Covid19 infections, but not at the level that we
> congest our health systems and disallow traveling.
This is what we have at the time of this writing. And I understand that
we do protocols, not epidemiology.
> Doing that more than
> a couple of months will be really bad for every economy, supply chains
> and that means citizens. We can’t (and must not) stop the world.
It seems that what WHO et al are advocating is "stay home", except for
essential services (normally food, health, fuel, security/police, high
ranks at government, and not a lot more)
Exactly. Work from home if you can. Don't work outside of home unless is essential. For example, Airbus, HP and many other industries in Spain have stopped for a few days, implemented security measures to avoid spreading the virus, but they are going to work back now to manufacture "respirators" which are needed to keep people live as they don't have sufficient in the existing intensive care units. Other industries have been producing masks, and alcohol industries have started to produce pharmaceutical alcohol and other disinfectants.
> We must get to normal as fast as we can, and the only way is
> confinement. I was not believing on that originally, but now it is clear
> to me.
We don't control this. And the number of flights on
https://www.flightradar24.com/ suggests that people don't even stay in
their cities. Unless lockdown is *enforced*, you're just "hoping".
[...]
> Despite that, I still think we are talking about this too early. I think
> we need to wait until around May-June.
That implies that people should wait till about a month before the IETF
to make the necessary arrangements. Besides, that not only implies that
the crazyness is over (I wished, but I'm not that optimistic), but also
that individuals and companies gor their own stuff in order to be
allowed/able to travel to e.g. attend a meeting. Not to mention that
with all the cancellations that have occurred (and that probably will
for some time), when flights get back to "normal", demand and prices
might be interesting.
In this case I don't have my flight to Madrid, obviously, but many folks may have already booked it. The airlines have canceled flights for 1-2 months (including March), but it looks like at the moment, if you have a May-June-July flight, is still up. This is my own case with several airlines. None is yet cancelled, so I will not need to rebook and I guess some folks coming to IETF108 may also have their flights booked already.
As much as I would like this crazyness to be over, I can't be as
optimistic as you.
Thanks,
--
Fernando Gont
SI6 Networks
e-mail: fgont@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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