On Mon, May 8, 2023 at 11:45 AM Behcet Sarikaya <sarikaya2012@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
...I have been attending IETF for 10+ years, fully registered and almost always completely attending but I have been in nomcom 0, yes zero times as a voting member, I think that the algorithm is useless at least for me.
The number of volunteers is a bit different every time but has been growing. 200 is probably a reasonable guess going forward. 10 people are selected. So, if you volunteer, any particular year the probability you will be selected is 5% and the probability you will not be selected is 95%. Assuming you volunteer every year, the probability of not being selected in 10 years is 0.95**10 or ~59.9% so the most common case, if you volunteer for 10 years, is that you will not be selected. For 20 years, it's 0,95**20 the probability of not being selected is down to about 35.8% or a bit more than 1/3. For 30 years, it would be 0.95**30 or 21.5%. But you're sure to be selected if you keep trying long enough. For 100 years, the probability of not being selected is less than 1%. Etc.
Maybe we need a mechanism to try to eliminate repeat selections somehow, my friend Don, this is for you.
Maybe.
Thanks,
Donald
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Donald E. Eastlake 3rd +1-508-333-2270 (cell)
2386 Panoramic Circle, Apopka, FL 32703 USA
Behcet--
Michael Richardson <mcr+IETF@xxxxxxxxxxxx> . o O ( IPv6 IøT consulting )
Sandelman Software Works Inc, Ottawa and Worldwide
