On Wed, Aug 25, 2010 at 08:41:45PM -0500, Mike McGrath wrote: > On Tue, 24 Aug 2010, Jeff Spaleta wrote: > > > On Tue, Aug 24, 2010 at 2:06 PM, Paul W. Frields <stickster@xxxxxxxxx> wrote: > > > I don't think anyone can generalize that the usage of Fedora is > > > declining. What we can prove, and certainly is troublesome, is that > > > yum check-ins of successive releases have been dropping by a couple > > > percent each release (although downloads are actually up), compared on > > > a per-week basis. It's no less likely that this decrease is due to > > > people just staying on a stable release, even past EOL. I've heard > > > anecdotal evidence to support that, which is no more or less valuable > > > than any other anecdotal evidence being presented, I suppose (IOW, > > > probably not worth a thing). If someone can present a hard analysis > > > that points to only one possible scenario, fantastic -- we can start > > > looking at causes. > > > > One additional metric which I'd like to see is the raw number of yum > > check-ins per week regardless of ip-addresses as an historic trend. > > As a stand alone metric its prone to both over and under counting like > > the other metrics but in a different way. It would be interesting to > > see if the raw yum check-in counts as an historic trend followed the > > download trending or the unique-ip trending. > > > > Ask and ye' shall receive. > > http://mmcgrath.fedorapeople.org/yum_hits.html > > I'm not quite sure what to make of it all yet except that this trend does > conflict with the "current release" numbers we have on the statistics page > (indicating people are using Fedora even after EOL) and that security > incidents requiring a rebuild of everything is bad for business, at least > temporarily :) This past week for instance, over 20,000 unique new IPs appeared for Fedora 11: https://fedoraproject.org/w/index.php?title=Statistics&diff=194190&oldid=193660 My hunch is that a couple thousand a week are probably due to cable modems or laptops moving to addresses we simply haven't seen before. That's about how many new IPs appear for Fedora 7 or Rawhide each week. But there's just no way to tell cause other than hunches. The folks who hang out in IRC #fedora as well as users@ list susbscribers can confirm people show up pretty frequently with newly-installed EOL Fedora. My scripts are always available here for reference. http://pfrields.fedorapeople.org/scripts/fedora-log1-statistics-scripts.tar.gz They're based on the command templates that Max originally worked out with Mike, and linked from the [[Statistics]] wiki page: https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Statistics/Commands If you guys find discrepancies or differences there, let me know; I'm always looking to make these as accurate as possible. -- Paul W. Frields http://paul.frields.org/ gpg fingerprint: 3DA6 A0AC 6D58 FEC4 0233 5906 ACDB C937 BD11 3717 http://redhat.com/ - - - - http://pfrields.fedorapeople.org/ Where open source multiplies: http://opensource.com -- devel mailing list devel@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx https://admin.fedoraproject.org/mailman/listinfo/devel
