Dear colleagues,
Kindly consider joining us at our session below during the IAVCEI 2017 Scientific Assembly in Portland, Oregon, August 14 - 18.
In the framework of this exciting session, poster presenters will have the option to give a 2-3 minute 'lightning talk' alongside their poster to introduce their work further. You will also have the opportunity to share your best work through a blog contribution. Finally, a Special Publication is currently being discussed with 'Frontiers in Earth Science' journal based on this session (submissions to this publication may be made shortly after IAVCEI 2017).
III.3. Statistical approaches and integrated methods for improved forecasting of volcanic eruptions
Forecasting the style of an impending volcanic eruption and its evolution throughout, are primary goals in volcanology. The combination of geophysical and geochemical monitoring provides a wealth of data and our best insights into the condition of a volcanic system. Yet, it remains challenging to detect precursors to gas explosions, as well as to forecast the type, style, magnitude, and duration of a magmatic eruption. Short-term eruption forecasts are particularly uncertain and our models that relate changes in monitoring parameters to the probability, timing, and nature of future activity are wrong. More reliable and useful quantitative forecasting requires development of optimized and integrated monitoring networks, standardized approaches and nomenclature, a new range of statistical methods and models that better capture the complexity of volcanic processes and system dynamics.
We would like to gather topics including optimization of monitoring networks (from 1 sensor to multi-disciplinary efforts, for single volcanoes or volcanic regions), field studies or lab experiments, statistics, ‘physics-based’ or empirical models, with the final goal of improving process-based or pattern-based forecasting of volcanic events. We particularly encourage studies that challenge established paradigms and that may ultimately support decision making of local authorities.
Invited speakers: Stephanie Prejean and Kyle Anderson
**Deadline for abstract submission is March 17, 2017*
http://iavcei2017.org/abstract
Do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions.
Corentin Caudron (corentin.caudron@xxxxxxxxx ),
Rebecca Astbury (rebecca.astbury@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Andrew Bell (a.bell@xxxxxxxx ),
Lauriane Chardot (lchardot@xxxxxxxxxx) ,
Társilo Girona (tarsilo.girno@xxxxxxxxx ),
Nico Fournier (n.fournier@xxxxxxxxxx )
Volcano Listserv is a collaborative venture among Arizona State University (ASU), Portland State University (PSU), the Global Volcanism Program (GVP) of the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of Natural History, and the International Association for Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior (IAVCEI).
ASU - http://www.asu.edu/ PSU - http://pdx.edu/ GVP - http://www.volcano.si.edu/ IAVCEI - http://www.iavcei.org/
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