Pavlof Volcano Displays Eruption Precursors

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ALASKA VOLCANO OBSERVATORY
Information Release
Wednesday, August 15, 2007 9:30 AM AKDT (1730 UTC)
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PAVLOF VOLCANO  (CAVW#1102-03-)
55°24\'57\" N161°53\'24\" W, Summit Elevation 8261 ft (2518 m)
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE
Current Volcano Alert Level: Watch
Previous Aviation Color Code: YELLOW
Previous Volcano Alert Level: Advisory



AVO is raising the aviation color code for Pavlof Volcano from Yellow
to ORANGE and the Alert Level from Advisory to WATCH.  AVO detected a
strong thermal anomaly at the volcano overnight.  Seismic activity
continues to increase in both number of events per hour and duration
of individual events.



These observations fit the pattern of activity prior to previous
eruptions and we now expect an eruption similiar to those in 1996,
1986, 1981, and 1983 to occur in the next day to weeks.



The last eruption of Pavlof began in September, 1996 and was first
reported by observers in Cold Bay. A several-month-long series of ash
explosions, lava-fountaining, and lava-flow production ensued. Ash
clouds reached as high as 30,000 ft ASL on one occasion, however, most
ash clouds were below 20,000 ft ASL. Prior to 1996, Pavlof erupted in
1986 sending ash as high as 49,000 ft ASL on at least one occasion.  A
hazard assessment for Pavlof and the Emmons Lake volcanic center is
available on the web at
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/pdfs/SIR2006-5248.pdf



AVO will be increasing its monitoring frequency for Pavlof while at
this heightened level of unrest.



Pavlof volcano is located on the southwestern end of the Alaska
Peninsula about 590 miles southwest of Anchorage. The community of
Cold Bay is located 37 miles to the southwest of Pavlof. Pavlof is a
steep-sided, symmetrical, 8261-ft-high stratovolcano. With almost 40
historic eruptions, it is one of the most active volcanoes in the
Aleutian arc. Eruptive activity is generally characterized by sporadic
lava fountaining continuing for a several-month period. Additional
hazards in the vicinity of the volcano included light ash fall on
nearby communities, mudflows, lava flows and avalanching of hot debris
on the flanks of the volcano. For more information on Pavlof and
potential volcano hazards, please see our web site:
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/volcanoes/volcinfo.php?volcname=Pavlof



VOLCANO ALERT LEVELS:
NORMAL  Typical background activity of a volcano in a non-eruptive state
ADVISORY  Elevated unrest above known background activity
WATCH  Volcano is exhibiting heightened or escalating unrest with
increased potential for eruptive activity
WARNING  Highly hazardous eruption underway or imminent

ABBREVIATED AVIATION COLOR CODE KEY:
GREEN volcano is dormant; normal seismicity and fumarolic activity occurring
YELLOW volcano is restless; eruption may occur
ORANGE volcano is in eruption or eruption may occur at any time
RED significant eruption is occurring or explosive eruption expected at any time

Please see http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/2006/vhpalertlevel.pdf for a
complete description of alert levels and color codes.

VOLCANO INFORMATION ON THE INTERNET: http://www.avo.alaska.edu
RECORDING ON THE STATUS OF ALASKA\'S VOLCANOES (907) 786-7478

CONTACT INFORMATION:
Tom Murray Scientist-in-Charge, USGS
tlmurray@xxxxxxxx (907) 786-7497

Steve McNutt, Coordinating Scientist, UAF
steve@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx (907) 474-7131

The Alaska Volcano Observatory is a cooperative program of the U.S.
Geological Survey, the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical
Institute, and the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical
Surveys.

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