Michel Py wrote:
I think you missed the point. As of today, IPv6 is in the same situation ISDN has always been:
I Still Don't Need. ^ ^ ^ ^
Comparisons to past successes or failures are fun, but not always good indications of future. There are several reasons behind why something takes or does not take off. These include customer needs, timing (can the SDO complete the specs before people deploy?), conformance to a dominating technology (why would I buy Beta if all movies are on Vhs?), problems working in all situations (does my VoIP call go through a NAT?), business case for all the parties that need to do something (can I charge you more if we start offering <x>?), ease of use (zero configuration for most of the network stuff is a requirement for success as far as I can see), immediate benefits (or do you have to wait before everyone else on the planet has it too before you can use it at all?) and so on.
The trouble with looking at past failures is that they make you feel like nothing can ever change. Yet we do have examples of spectacular successes, even in cases where there has been obstacles in the way, significant complexity or existing, competing technology that provides some of the same functionality. Say, switch from analog to digital cellular technology. Many such successes occur in situations where the market is growing rapidly, which makes it easier to change technology. And I believe the Internet is growing rapidly. For instance, there are billions of people in Asia, hopefully most of whom will probably have Internet access in the next ten years. Or the cell phone users, looks like the trend is that everyone will also have IP (and IPv6!); that's over a billion users more than we have now in the Internet.
Also, the comparisons may not be exact matches: I wonder what would have happened to ISDN if the numbering system in the analog system had run out of numbers, and everyone who got their phone after 1960, including all the Chinese subscribers, would only be able to make, not receive calls?
--Jari
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