On Sat, May 09, 2020 at 11:03:39PM -0400, Phillip Hallam-Baker wrote: > No Keith, I have a different form of pessimism. I was a control engineer at > one point. We have a system with a high gain (R=5.7) and a long delay (14 > days before hospitalizations). So I expect we will be seeing oscillation > with governments announcing premature lockdown lifts followed by > re-imposition as the case load and death rate becomes unsustainable. An apt analysis, indeed. I share this pessimism and will add to it by noting that while "the vaccine" is being held out as a solution, a best case timeline for a tested-effective tested-safe vaccine has it probably 12-18 months out. That is only the beginning: we have to hope that it won't require refrigeration. We have to hope that it can be administered orally or a via a patch, that is, without syringes. We have to hope that billions of doses can be manufactured and distributed. We have to hope that an army of people are available to administer those doses. We have to hope that somehow all this gets paid for, because it's not an option to just make it available to those who can afford it. We have to hope that (a) it confers neutralizing immunity in one dose, because if it requires N doses then all the logistics above get multiplied by N and (b) that the immunity is durable enough to protect recipients for a reasonable period of time. We have to hope that as the virus mutates that it doesn't mutate into something the vaccine doesn't address. We have to hope that this all happens despite the demonstrated, sustained, profound incompetence of multiple national, state/province, and local governments which have chosen to ignore and/or suppress scientific experts. Given all this, a best case scenario is probably three years. BEST case, assuming all the things I just listed (and some that I didn't) turn out in our favor. Realistic case? I don't know. But it took a decade of massive, coordinated, funded, global effort to eradicate smallpox. (h/t to expert Laurie Garrett, who I'm borrowing from heavily.) ---rsk
