On 5/9/20 11:03 PM, Phillip Hallam-Baker wrote:
Perhaps my judgment is colored by living in the US, but I suspect you're
assuming far more sanity among governments than is warranted. IOW, the
limiting constraint may vary from one place to another.
No Keith, I have a different form of pessimism. I was a control engineer at one point. We have a system with a high gain (R=5.7) and a long delay (14 days before hospitalizations). So I expect we will be seeing oscillation with governments announcing premature lockdown lifts followed by re-imposition as the case load and death rate becomes unsustainable.
Consider also the fact that for international travel to become practical, it is going to be necessary to have multiple countries lift restrictions at the same time.
We agree on those two things, at least.
Keith
