Volcano observatories face huge responsibilities during critical periods of volcanic unrest. Scientists must analyze monitoring data, characterize patterns of unrest, develop conceptual models of subsurface processes, fine-tune eruptive scenarios and, most importantly, communicate scenarios and their likelihoods to authorities and the lay public. Preparedness by all parties involved plays a key role in a successful crisis response. Regional and national volcanic threat assessments have been adopted and implemented by many observatory organizations around the world to serve both operational and educational frameworks. National-scale synoptic assessments can be used as strategic road maps to address volcanic risk through research, monitoring, and hazard assessment as efficiently and effectively as possible with available resources. They can also be effective communication tools with which to engage stakeholders, including emergency managers, elected officials, and the public in discussions of hazards before and during volcanic crises.
Major scientific issues include the estimation of the size, timing, and dynamics of the potential hazardous event. On the one hand, the duration of unrest can affect scientific interpretation of subsurface process and the public’s perception of relative risk. For example, for long-lasting periods of unrest (e.i. Campi Flegrei, Chiles-Cerro Negro), the lack of eruption can cause a loss of confidence in scientific forecasts. On the other hand, continuous eruptions (e.i. El Reventador, Sinabung), can also cause the public to pay less attention to the ongoing crisis. Building trust between the scientists and the civil society through efficient communication strategies is one key to limit the negative impact of both eruptions and false alarms.
In this session, we propose to assess developments in each of their aforementioned responsibilities, from an historical perspective. Communications about methodology breakthroughs from the scientific community and emergency managers, developments in monitoring techniques in volcanic observatories, and alert level and eruption records from all over the world will provide a clear overview of the current state-of-the-art, and will all
Angie Diefenbach
Dmitri Rouwet
Heather Wright
John Ewert
Volcano Listserv is a collaborative venture among Arizona State University (ASU), Portland State University (PSU), the Global Volcanism Program (GVP) of the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of Natural History, and the International Association for Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior (IAVCEI).
ASU - http://www.asu.edu/ PSU - http://pdx.edu/ GVP - http://www.volcano.si.edu/ IAVCEI - http://www.iavcei.org/
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