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Dear colleagues,
we would like to invite you to
submit an abstract to IUGG session (see below for its description)
"Short-Term Forecasting of Volcanic Hazard:
So Far, So Good?" (VS11)
to be held during the 2015 IUGG General Assembly in Prague (22
June - 2 July, 2015).
Official abstract submission deadline: 31st of January 2015
We are looking forward to meeting you in Prague!
Conveners: Andy Bell (Edinburgh, UK), Roberto Carniel (Udine, Italy), Henry Odbert (Bristol, U.K.), Laura Sandri (Bologna, Italy), Jacopo Selva (Bologna, Italy)(please contact Laura Sandri at laura.sandri@xxxxxxx for any information)
Short-term hazard evaluations, issued during unrest and pre-eruptive crises, are a key tool for mitigating volcanic hazard. However, they are generally associated with significant uncertainties which arise from numerous different sources. Successful short-term hazard forecasting is therefore likely to adopt a multidisciplinary approach, in which different pieces of evidence and different scientific skills are combined to help decipher what is frequently a puzzling picture. To this end, several different scientific methods have recently been proposed (or re-proposed). These approaches include both deterministic methods, such as the forecast failure method, and probabilistic methods, which may be unsupervised or incorporate expert judgement. In all cases, the primary input to these methods comes from analyses of monitoring data and eruption databases associated with the volcano displaying unrest or its analogues. The treatment of scientific uncertainty can be crucially important, particularly for low-probability, high-impact events. Consequently, techniques to quantify and incorporate these uncertainties into hazard forecasts have been a focus of numerous studies in recent years. However, given the relative rarity of eruptions, it is difficult to compare the performance of different methods, and to evaluate just how “good” eruption forecasts can be. In this symposium, we welcome presentations discussing successful or problematic aspects of short-term hazard forecasting. These presentations may highlight the pros and cons of different methods, the lessons learned from truly prospective applications, or ideas for forecast testing and evaluation.
Volcano Listserv is a collaborative venture among Arizona State University (ASU), Portland State University (PSU), the Global Volcanism Program (GVP) of the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of Natural History, and the International Association for Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior (IAVCEI).
ASU - http://www.asu.edu/ PSU - http://pdx.edu/ GVP - http://www.volcano.si.edu/ IAVCEI - http://www.iavcei.org/
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