IUGG 2015. Session VS10: Probabilistic Volcano Hazard Analysis
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Dear Colleagues,
We would like to draw your attention to IUGG 2015 Session VS10:
Probabilistic Volcano Hazard Analysis
at the 2015 IUGG General Assembly in Prague (22nd June - 2nd July).
**ABSTRACTS ARE DUE Jan. 31, 2015** http://www.iugg2015prague.com/abstracts/abstract-submission.htm
Convener: Eliza Calder (Edinburgh, UK)
Co-conveners: Mark Bebbington (Palmerston North, New Zealand), Jacopo Selva (Bologna, Italy)
Invited speakers: Sebastian Biass (Geneva), Laura Sandri (INGV)
Description
While Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has been around for quite a while, the volcanic
equivalent is still in its infancy. One difficulty is that while PSHA can concentrate on a scalar variable
(peak ground acceleration) resulting from an earthquake, volcanic hazard is inherently multidimensional,
with pyroclastic flow, tephra, lava, lahars, etc. each characterised by their own separate metrics.
Furthermore, some volcanically-induced hazards are not necessarily temporally associated with
eruption onsets, like lahars, seismic swarms, etc. Analysis of volcanic hazards must take into account
both the type(s) of impact, and the likelihood of an impact of a given scale within a given time window
(exposure time). Where is the lahar likely to go, and at what height and speed; what area will the lava
flow inundate; what is the runout distance of a pyroclastic flow; what is (for airspace management
especially), the duration of the eruption? These questions are the basis of decision-making around
high-risk volcanic centres, and can only be answered via probabilistic hazard analysis. Often such analysis
is undertaken for individual hazards, but the overall goal of integration of a suite of possible hazards is still
highly problematic. A further issue is that current methodologies allow some hazards (e.g. tephra fall) to
be better characterised, probabilistically, than others (e.g. lahars/debris flows). In order to advance
probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis, it is clear that attention has to be focused on the weakest aspects
of the current procedures. We seek papers that quantify, in a probabilistic fashion, the mid-to long-term
hazards from a volcano (exposure times in the order of years to tens of years). The focus should be on
providing information for the authorities for both hazard management and land-use planning purposes.
Topics of interest include the probabilistic assessment of hazard exposure and probabilistic hazard maps,
the design of scenarios for civil defence exercises, simulations, uncertainty estimation, expert elicitation,
and quantification of dependencies between hazards. Papers that incorporate the impact on decision
making, vulnerability and risk analyses, and other aspects of risk management are particularly welcome.
Sincerely
Eliza, Mark & JacopoVolcano Listserv is a collaborative venture among Arizona State University (ASU), Portland State University (PSU), the Global Volcanism Program (GVP) of the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of Natural History, and the International Association for Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior (IAVCEI).
ASU - http://www.asu.edu/ PSU - http://pdx.edu/ GVP - http://www.volcano.si.edu/ IAVCEI - http://www.iavcei.org/
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