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CoV 8. Understanding the past and future behaviour of volcanoes: Combining geology, history and archaeology to improve hazard assessment
From: karenf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxCoV 8. Understanding the past and future behaviour of volcanoes: Combining geology, history and archaeology to improve hazard assessment
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Dear colleagues,
We would like to draw your attention to session 2.I.A, "Understanding the past and future behaviour of volcanoes: Combining geology, history and archaeology to improve hazard assessment", to be held at the Cities on Volcanoes 8 meeting in Yogyakarta, Indonesa (9 - 13 Sept 2014). We invite contributions dealing with volcanic geology, especially those integrating detailed field studies with geochronological, geochemical and petrological data as well as analogue or numerical modelling. In addition to geological studies, we also welcome contributions using non-geological data, e.g. archaeology and oral traditions. We especially welcome ideas on how this range of specialties can be optimally integrated with hazard and risk management strategies. A full session description is written below.
The abstract submission deadline is Monday 14th April 2014. Full details can be found on http://www.citiesonvolcanoes8.com.
We hope to see in Yogyakarta for what promises to be a stimulating meeting!
Karen Fontijn
Julia Crummy
Jean-Christophe Komorowski
Kristi Wallace
Nils Lenhardt
David Pyle
Chris Newhall
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Understanding the past behaviour of volcanoes is crucial to anticipate potential future hazards at a range of timescales. This not only includes understanding the eruptive history and frequency, but also the diversity in eruptive style, as well as the complexity of specific eruptive events and how this is reflected in the deposits both spatially and temporally. Today the vast majority of potentially active on-land volcanoes in the world remains largely unstudied in terms of eruptive history, posing serious challenges towards hazard and risk mitigation in communities that may be largely unaware of potential hazards. Several recent eruptions have displayed a highly variable and complex behaviour which could challenge day-to-day risk management during eruptive crises.
Field studies of eruption deposits provide the data for volcanological studies including magma evolution, numerical modelling and understanding current and future activity. Volcano stratigraphy together with geochronology enables detailed investigations into the past behaviour of volcanoes including eruption cyclicity, repose intervals, switches in behaviour and processes occurring in the magmatic plumbing system. Through detailed field studies, assessments of volcanic hazards can be made integrating the different styles of activity with numerical models. In addition to geological field studies however, important information on eruptive dynamics, eruptive history and the impact of eruptions on societies may be gained from eyewitness documents, historical archives and a wide range of archaeological studies.
In this session we invite contributions that integrate detailed field studies with geochronological, petrological and geochemical data, as well as numerical or analogue modelling. This can include geological mapping at volcanoes, stratigraphic studies on a volcano-specific or regional scale, unravelling the complexity of deposits from specific eruptive or non-eruptive (e.g. volcanic landslides) events, etc. In addition, we invite contributions using non-geological data, e.g. archaeology and oral traditions. We especially welcome ideas on how these geological and other studies can be optimally integrated with hazard and risk management strategies. Relevant questions from this perspective are: Is complex eruptive behaviour likely to be preserved in prehistoric deposits? How do we translate information in the eruptive record and volcanic deposits for laymen? How representative is the geological record for the input data needed for short- and long-term hazard assessment, in terms of underrepresentation of number of events, of eruptive behaviour and magnitude and/or intensity? How do we deal with this uncertainty in probabilistic hazard assessments? Are the data from geological studies being used in modelling hazards? Do we need to standardise collection parameters to help improve deterministic and probabilistic modelling efforts? Can modern well-documented case studies of eruptions and deposits help us re-evaluate prehistoric deposits? Given that volcanoes display a wide range of eruptive behaviour, are there any clues in the geological record to anticipate what the next eruption will be like, in particular what are the credible scenarios for the development of the eruption and its intensity time series? How can we use the information from non-geological sources in our hazard assessments?
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Karen Fontijn
Post Doctoral Research Assistant - Volcanology
Department of Earth Sciences
University of Oxford
South Parks Road
Oxford OX1 3AN
United Kingdom
Room 20.44
Tel.: +44 (0)1865 272044; +44 (0)7580 104464 (mobile)
Fax: +44 (0)1865 272072
http://www.earth.ox.ac.uk
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