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AGU 2011 Session: NH03 Can Estimates of Rare Natural Events Be Well Done?
From: Brittain.Hill@xxxxxxx <Brittain.Hill@xxxxxxx>
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Dear Colleagues:
We would like to call to your attention a special session at this fall's AGU meeting, and encourage you to consider a presentation of your work in this session.
NH03: Can Estimates of Rare Natural Events Be Well Done?
Sponsor: Natural Hazards (NH)
Co-Sponsor(s): Atmospheric Sciences (A), Biogeosciences (B), Cryosphere (C), Study of Earth's Deep Interior (DI), Education (ED), Geodesy (G), Global Environmental Change (GC), Hydrology (H), Nonlinear Geophysics (NG), Near Surface Geophysics (NS), Ocean Sciences (OS), Public Affairs (PA), Seismology (S), Tectonophysics (T), Volcanology, Geochemistry, and Petrology (V)
Description: Estimating the likelihood of rare natural events is intrinsic to many societal decisions, such as siting of critical facilities around the world. Because rare events with high potential hazard occur infrequently, recurrence rate estimates often have large uncertainties that challenge confident probabilistic assessments. The record of historical events also may not represent an appropriate range of potential future events, especially for assessment timescales extending beyond decades. This session explores state-of-the-science approaches to evaluating the likelihood of rare natural events, including case studies of strongly episodic systems, novel statistical or probabilistic techniques, and deterministic bounds from physical modeling.
As a gentle reminder, the AGU abstract deadline is 4 August 2011.
Thank-you for your consideration-
Brittain Hill (brittain.hill@xxxxxxx),
Annie Kammerer (annie.kammerer@xxxxxxx),
and Stephen Self (stephen.self@xxxxxxx)
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