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Probabilistic Hazard Mapping events
From: Eliza Calder <ecalder@xxxxxxxxxxx>
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Dear colleagues,
We would like to call your attention to two upcoming events that may be of
interest to those working on hazard mapping or probabilistic hazard mapping.
The first is a workshop at the State University of New York at Buffalo,
entitled' Probabilistic Analysis of Volcanic Hazards: A Discussion on
Current Methodologies and Vision for Future Efforts" (to be held 16-19 May,
2011).
The second is a session on Probabilistic Hazard Mapping at the IUGG
Conference 28 June-7 July, Melbourne, Australia (call for Abstracts closes 1
February 2011).
Please consider contributing. Eliza Calder
Further information for each event can be found below:
1. UNIVERSITY at BUFFALO WORKSHOP
Probabilistic Analysis of Volcanic Hazards:
A Discussion on Current Methodologies and Vision for Future Efforts.
State University of New York at Buffalo (16-19 May, 2011).
This workshop will bring experts in modeling, computing, and statistical
analysis, together with field scientists, to provide a comprehensive
assessment of the current state of probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis.
An additional outcome of this conference will be to define priorities for
future research that are driven by the needs of today¹s stakeholders.
Generating hazard maps and/or probabilistic hazard maps for active or
potentially active volcanoes is recognized as a fundamental step towards the
mitigation of risk to vulnerable communities. The responsibility for
generating such maps most commonly lies with government institutions but in
many cases input from the academic community is either solicited or relied
on. It is of critical importance to understand the wide variety of methods
that are currently employed to generate such maps, and the respective
philosophies on which they are based. At the same time, modeling potential
methods to ameliorate the hazard will assist public officials as they plan
mitigation strategies.
Increasingly, computational models of volcanic plumes and flows are used to
gauge potential areas of inundation or tephra loading, and potential
mitigation responses. These models range from simple but robust empirical
relationships to stochastic application of complex fluid dynamical models.
Although probabilistic maps have to be custom-built for each volcano, the
geo-hazards community will benefit from a cross-fertilization of ideas,
across disciplinarily boundaries and from a range of geographically and
sociologically diverse applications. An international slate of speakers will
address a broad range of topics including:
· Methods of probabilistic analysis
· Difficulties of data glut from computer models
· Uncertainty in DEMs, and their evolution with time
· Prediction of extreme events and their consequences
· Communicating probabilities
Organized by Eliza Calder (ecalder@xxxxxxxxxxx) & Bruce Pitman. Please
contact organizers for further details.
2. IUGG SESSION (V9) PROBABILISTIC VOLCANIC HAZARD MAPPING
IUGG 2011, 28 June-7 July, Melbourne, Australia
Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Mapping.
A more coherent approach in dealing with hazard mapping would be a benefit
to the volcanological community. The variability of currently utilized
approaches results from differences in the extent of understanding, and
capability of modeling the respective physical processes involved in
different hazards (e.g. tephra fall, pyroclastic density currents
emplacement and lahar inundation), as well as implicit differences in
methodologies and philosophies on which the hazard maps are based. This is
true, in particular, for probabilistic hazard maps, which are highly diverse
in the information conveyed. Yet, probabilistic approaches need to be fully
transparent across the discipline; they are used to communicate and inform
stakeholders, for whom an understanding of the significance of the
uncertainties involved is crucial. An increase in the application of
computational models to understand potential hazards, and their use in
probabilistic hazard mapping, is also intricately bound with discussions on
model suitability and inherent uncertainty for forward modeling purposes.
Assessing the types of models suitable for use in these applications relies
on our understanding of the physical processes involved, but also our
appreciation of aspects of the real phenomena that are not sufficiently well
captured by models. Models that can be relatively quickly run, in stochastic
mode, and are coupled with geographic data or atmospheric data, are being
increasingly tested and employed in the generation of probabilistic hazard
maps during real volcanic crises. In this session, we will encourage
discussion from a broad spectrum of topics dealing with hazard mapping
across the flow and plume communities. In particular, the development of new
probabilistic methodologies, including those based on deposit mapping,
computational modeling, and new statistical tools for probabilistic-based
hazard assessments including multi-model analysis and the use of expert
elicitation.
Keynote Speaker: Marta Calvache, Giovanni Macedonio
Convenors: Eliza Calder & Roberto Carniel
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