**************************************************************** From: Chris Nye <cnye@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> **************************************************************** Listserve members; What percentage of volcanoes have robust, shallow, hydrothermal systems? Specifically what percentage of stratovolcanoes have, within 2-3 km of the surface, hydrothermal systems that are robust enough to support megawatt-scale geothermal plants? The answer lies somewhere between none and all, but is it a few? some? most? I'm interested in gut-level guesses, "conventional wisdom", carefully considered estimates, or references to appropriate literature. Responses that are parsed according to volcano type or tectonic setting are welcome. I'm trying to take the pulse of our community, not derive a scientifically valid result. If I get a number of replies I'll summarize them and circulate the results -- with or without your name attached (I certainly wouldn't want my name attached to my sense "some but not most" unless I was there for the discussion). Why am I interested? In the current energy climate there is a lot of scrambling trying to identify alternative sources of power for electrical generation. Planners, utility managers, and politicians are trying to sort out what comes next. In my area (Alaska) some non-geoscientist people are making plans based on assumptions which are (imho) overly optimistic. I'm anticipating being asked by some legislative subcommittee to make a statement about the long term potential of geothermal related to a volcano for which we don't have good exploration data, and that "we don't know" won't be a good enough answer. One great source of uncertainty concerns blind geothermal systems. If we believe that significant shallow geothermal systems will (most of the time) bleed up to the surface then it's easier to make a decent estimation. If we believe that a significant number of shallow geothermal systems don't communicate with the surface then making a decent estimate of their number is problematic. This isn't about the future potential of geothermal in general because it doesn't include non-volcanic areas; it doesn't include uses of geothermal fluids other than electricity generation; and it doesn't consider economic viability, or even permitting issues. Thanks in advance to all who take the time to reply Chris Nye (cnye@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx - (907) 474-7430) =========================================== Christopher Nye Alaska Volcano Observatory Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys cnye@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, ph: (907) 474-7430 snailmail: Chris Nye, AVO/DGGS, UAF Geophysical Institute, 903 Koyukuk Drive, Fairbanks, AK 99775-7320 ============================================================== To unsubscribe from the volcano list, send the message: signoff volcano to: listserv@xxxxxxx, or write to: volcano-request@xxxxxxxx To contribute to the volcano list, send your message to: volcano@xxxxxxxx Please do not send attachments. ==============================================================
