Sorce/Pegasus launch weather forecast

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 <<...OLE_Obj...>> 	Eastern Range Operations Forecast Op Number:  F8451
PEGASUS / SORCE Issued:  24 Jan 03  Valid:  25 Jan  03 / 2009 - 2109Z (1509
- 1609L) 	
		
Vehicle/Payload	PEGASUS / SORCE                                    Location:
Air Launch 	
		
Launch Weather Officer:	Mike Jennings, 45 WS Range Weather Operations

Synoptic Discussion: 		
The strong cold front has exited the area and moved well south of the
Florida into Cuba.  A vigorous High Pressure Center drops into the South
East U.S today inducing gusty surface winds and very cold temperatures over
central Florida.  Temperatures dropping below freezing this morning and near
freezing again on Saturday morning in the local area.  Weather on Saturday
looks good for launch, with northerly winds at the Skid Strip for takeoff of
the L1011.  Skies are expected to be partly cloudy along the entire flight
path of the L1011 prior to Pegasus Drop.  A very strong Jet Stream aloft
will provide a strong westerly wind at Flight level (39 kft) and a chance of
light to moderate turbulence for the L1011.  The only concern for launch day
will be the chance of light with occasional moderate turbulence during L1011
climb out and at flight level (39 kft).   	
				
CCAFS Skid Strip at Takeoff (25 Jan/1400L):		
Clouds	Coverage	Bases (feet)	Tops (feet)	
Stratocumulus	SCT 3/8	3000	3500	
				
Visibility:	7 miles + 	
Wind:	350-020 degrees at 8 - 15 knots  	
Temperature:	58 - 60 F 		Altimeter Setting: 30.26 in	
Weather:	None	
	
Flight Path and Drop Point :		
Clouds	Coverage	Bases (feet)	Tops (feet)	
Stratocumulus	SCT 3/8	3000 	3500	
Cirrus	SCT 3/8	25000	26000	
	
At Flight Level (39 kft):		
Visibility:	7 miles +  (Unlimited)	
Wind:	260 degrees at 125 knots  	
Temperature:	- 56 C 		Barometric Pressure:  208 mb  	
Weather:	Chance of light to occasional moderate Turbulence at Flight
Level (39 kft) 	
	
Overall probability of violating weather constraints:	 10%	
Primary concern(s):	Chance of light to moderate Turbulence at Flight
Level (39 kft)	
	
Overall probability of violating weather constraints for 24 hour delay:	20%

Primary concern(s):	Slight Chance of Rainshowers over the Gulf Stream
along the flight path of the L1011	
	
Sunrise:	25 Jan 03 / 0714L EST	Moonrise:	25 Jan 03 / 0036L
EST	
Sunset:	25 Jan 03 / 1757L EST	Moonset:	25 Jan 03 / 1209L EST	
		Illumination:	25 %	
Next forecast will be issued:	25 Jan 03 / 0800 EST If Necessary 	




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