SORCE/Pegasus launch weather forecast

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 <<...OLE_Obj...>> 	Eastern Range Operations Forecast Op Number:  F8451 PEGASUS / SORCE Issued:  23 Jan 03 Valid:  25 Jan 03 	
		
Vehicle/Payload	PEGASUS / SORCE                                    Location:  Air Launch 	
		
Launch Weather Officer:	Mike Jennings 	
Synoptic Discussion: 		
A strong cold front is expected to move through Cape Canaveral early Thursday bringing strong northerly winds and a chance of rainshowers.  Very cold air will follow this front with the possibility of temperatures dropping below freezing on Friday and Saturday morning in the local area.  Weather on Saturday looks good for launch, with light northerly winds at the Skid Strip for takeoff of the L1011.  Skies are expected to be partly cloudy along the entire flight path of the L1011 prior to Pegasus Drop.  A very strong Jet Stream aloft will provide a strong westerly wind at Flight level (39 kft) and a chance of light to moderate turbulence for the L1011.  The only slight concern for launch day will be the chance of light with occasional moderate turbulence during L1011 climb out and at flight level (39 kft).   	
				
CCAFS Skid Strip at Takeoff (25 Jan/1400L):		
Clouds	Coverage	Bases (feet)	Tops (feet)	
Stratocumulus	SCT 3/8	3000	3500	
Cirrus	SCT 3/8	25000	26000	
Visibility:	7 miles + 	
Wind:	350-020 degrees at 8 gusting to 12 knots  	
Temperature:	54 - 56 F 		Altimeter Setting: 30.26 in	
Weather:	None	
	
Flight Path and Drop Point :		
Clouds	Coverage	Bases (feet)	Tops (feet)	
Stratocumulus	SCT 2/8	3000 	3500	
Cirrus	SCT 3/8	25000	26000	
	
At Flight Level (39 kft):		
Visibility:	7 miles +  (Unlimited)	
Wind:	260 / 125 KTS  	
Temperature:	- 54 C 		Barometric Pressure:  212 mb  	
Weather:	Chance of light to occasional moderate Turbulence at Flight Level (39 kft) 	
	
Overall probability of violating weather constraints:	 10%	
Primary concern(s):	Chance of light to moderate Turbulence at Flight Level (39 kft)	
	
Overall probability of violating weather constraints for 24 hour delay:	20%	
Primary concern(s):	Slight Chance of Rainshowers over the Gulf Stream along the flight path of the L1011	
	
Sunrise:	25 Jan 03 / 0714L EST	Moonrise:	25 Jan 03 / 0036L EST	
Sunset:	25 Jan 03 / 1757L EST	Moonset:	25 Jan 03 / 1209L EST	
		Illumination:	25 %	
Next forecast will be issued:	24 Jan 03 / 0800 EST	




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