On Sun, Aug 26, 2007 at 12:20:01PM +0100, Michael Dillon wrote: > In two or three years, IPv4 network growth will be severely limited. Any > business whose revenue growth is linked to IP network growth, must use > IPv6 for this beyond two to three years from now. IN order to > successfully use IPv6 for the mission critical network growth that is > the engine of business revenue, they need to have at least a year of > trials and lab testing in advance. That means there is not much more > than a year before such businesses will have missed the boat. Some may > argue that Return three years from now on Investment made today is not > short term, and that is true. However, if the investment is not made > today, the platform for short term ROI will not exist in three years > time. > > That does make a strong business case and some companies are busy > working behind the scenes to prepare for the disruption caused by IPv4 > runout. For some, the disruptive event will be fatal and for others it > will be very profitable. This message will soon reach the investment > community so you will soon see investment analysts asking very tough > IPv6 deployment questions, and rating stocks appropriately. That is > definitely a short term ROI scenario for IPv6. Hmmm ... I haven't heard much about IPv6 deployment yet from an investment standpoint from the usual business news sources, even the tech business news sources. I'll grant that may change soon. However, as has been noted, there are businesses, organizations, etc. that have migrated to, or adopted, IPv6. I hear that IPv6 has gained a foothold in Asia, for example. Perhaps the answer to all of these questions regarding "pain points" is to collect and document case studies on who made the migration or adoption, what problems were encountered, etc. > Think back to the days when the OSI protocols were expected to be the > next big thing, replacing IPX, DECNET, Appletalk and NetBIOS. IP was for > universities and labs. In telecoms, ISDN and ATM were the wave of the > future. This is the way things were in 1993. Two years later, in 1995 we > were experiencing exponential growth of the TCP/IP Internet. I believe > that it was something like 1500% growth in that year and dozens of new > books about the Internet came on the market joining the 3 books that > were on the market in 1994. > > It is almost certain that IPv4 runout will drive a similar upsurge in > IPv6, although not quite the same magnitude. Hasn't there been exponential growth of the TCP/IP Internet all along? Also, with regards to the time period in question, wasn't most of the growth fueled by (1) interest in the WWW, and (2) interest of some of the online services at the time (AOL, CompuServe, etc.) to provide access to the Internet, and vice versa? I wasn't aware that OSI was part of the discussion at this point. A few years earlier, there were "mandates" for US government networks to use OSI protocols (GOSIP), but nothing ever came of that. --gregbo _______________________________________________ Ietf@xxxxxxxx https://www1.ietf.org/mailman/listinfo/ietf