--On Monday, 10 April, 2006 19:31 +0200 Iljitsch van Beijnum
<iljitsch@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>...
> Everyone who thinks that regular users are going to forego
> IPv4 connectivity in favor of IPv6 connectivity as long as
> IPv4 still works to a remotely usable degree is a card
> carrying member of the Internet Fantasy Task Force*.
Because I think part of this comment is important, I want to
disagree with part of the statement.
The gating factor isn't just "works to a remotely useable
degree". It is also a matter of cost. Especially at the
"regular user" end of the market, decisions are typically very
cost-sensitive.
So, let's assume that I'm an ISP and (i) I discover that I've
switched to IPv6 to avoid needing to use private addressing in
my core network, (ii) I discover that it is now costing me more
to support IPv4 customers (because they require protocol and
address translation gateways, even with 4-to-6 and similar
schemes) than it does to support native IPv6 customers. (iii) I
decide to start passing those costs along to the IPv4 users,
maybe even disproportionately to get people to migrate. Or
suppose that, as an ISP, I decide I want to save IPv4 addresses
for my big-bucks customers and hence to force those "regular
users" to pay the big bucks to keep using IPv4.
Now, at least two things impact whether migration occurs at that
stage. One is whether there are still effective options for
IPv4 at a sufficiently low differential price point to justify a
switch in providers. How large that differential would need to
be is pretty much speculation -- far harder than predicting the
future of address space exhaustion. And it is complicated by
the question of how much choice of providers that regular user
actually has -- in many areas, the answer is not a lot of
choices.
The second is whether IPv6 is really good enough to deliver
services (at the applications layer, which is all those "regular
users" care about) that are roughly as good, and as complete as
set, as the IPv4 services. It is there that I think we are in
trouble with regard to hardware, support costs, tutorial
information, etc.
But it isn't just "still works well enough" ... there are some
incentives that can be applied here and that some might claim
are inevitable that might cause a "regular user" shift on a
purely economic basis.
john
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