On 7-nov-04, at 22:18, Tony Hain wrote:
That said, I stand by the point that if the recent depletion rate of 9 /8s
in 6 months holds, there are only 58 months left. That event may have been
an anomaly, or it may be the precursor to an even more accelerated run rate.
We won't know for several years which it was.
Right. It's almost impossible to come up with good projections because there are many factors that are easily overlooked or too hard to quantify. A simple one is that /8s are reclaimed from time to time, which increases the number of available addresses and lowers the apparent burn rate. A much more complex issue is the practice of some ISPs to use old /8s they got way back when to give out addresses to their customers (4.0.0.0/8 is a good example). Once those private stashes are gone we'll see a higher burn rate. I think the fact that the whole broadband revolution doesn't show up in Geoff's statistics is a good indication that those statistics are incomplete.
What I'm afraid of is that we may end up in a situation where many people have all the addresses they need and don't see any reason to adopt IPv6, while others who are late to the table can't get sufficient IPv4 address space and will have to adopt IPv6 out of necessity, resulting in a fragmented internet where large groups can only communicate with each other using hideous NAT hacks.
-----Original Message-----
Ietf mailing listIetf mailing listIetf mailing listIetf mailing list
Would you guys please stop quoting previous messages verbatim? At this rate the SMTP protocol will break before the end of this debate.
_______________________________________________ Ietf@xxxxxxxx https://www1.ietf.org/mailman/listinfo/ietf