Re: IETF 114 in the USA

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--On Monday, September 20, 2021 17:33 +0100 Stewart Bryant
<stewart.bryant@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

> I do not mind where it is, just that I think it should be
> someplace that has not had a 17month blanket travel band and
> no sign of lifting it.

Stewart,

As has already been pointed out, the US announced this morning
that the ban is being lifted and replaced in November by a
vaccination requirement.  That is all the information I (at
least) have right now but...

* It certainly counters "no sign of lifting it"

* It reinforces a main point Phillip and I (and Brian before us)
have been trying to make, which is that predicting these
actions, or even extrapolating from recent months to the future,
is, well, not reliable ... certainly not reliable enough that
one would want to made commitments with significant operational
and financial implications on the basis of such predictions.

* And, as both of them also pointed out, company policies may be
at least as important to whether we can have a productive f2f
(or even hybrid) meeting than national policies.  Those company
policies may be more rational and less opaque than those of many
governments, but that does not make them more predictable long
in advance.

> Canada would be fine.

Except, to generalize a bit from what Mike pointed out, every
country that is "ok" because of vaccination requirements rather
than travel bans has a list of conditions for people to be
considered vaccinated.   Usually that includes "vaccinated with
a vaccine we believe in", but, as things are evolving, there may
be number of doses, frequency or time since vaccination, etc.
My personal guess is that WHO and/or various treaty alliances
will eventually get that sorted out but I certainly would not
plan based on that happening really soon.

And, finally, Barbara, my comment was clearly over-broad, and
there is clearly a long history in some countries of making
rather fine distinctions in visa applications and entry
interviews based on why you want to come.  Sometimes those
categories have come with conditions for entry or even what you
are allowed to do once there conditioned on those categories.
So, yes.  And part of what makes all of this complicated is that
there are tradeoffs between the best decisions from a public
health standpoint (given available knowledge) and the best ones
from an economic (particular business and business promotion)
standpoint.  That said, a hypothetical question that I really,
really, hope won't happen.  Suppose there is a severe COVID
outbreak in the Netherlands or perhaps somewhere else in the
world from which people are expected to attend between now and
that meeting.  And suppose the outbreak is significant enough
that people in authority have concerns about superspreader
events.  Now (1) Want to bet on the meeting being held or
foreign participants allowed?  (2) Want to bet on your ability
to get home, and get home without long quarantine requirements
if you can go?  (3)  Want to bet on AT&T allowing or encouraging
you to go?   

For IETF, as Brian says, just too complicated to predict.

   john

best,
   john




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