On 26/09/2020 12:20, Rich Kulawiec wrote:
On 14/09/2020 23:49, IETF Executive Director wrote:
The background to this is firstly that we are still in the midst of a
pandemic with ongoing major disruption to global travel. A vaccine
is expected but the timing cannot be predicted and there are still
many obstacles to overcome.
First, I agree with Phillip Hallam-Baker, who wrote (downthread) "Cancel
the meeting as soon as possible". To me, this is obvious.
Second, I wouldn't bother investing even one minute or one sentence
into planning any (physical) meetings because it's wasted effort.
Let me explain why I write that.
Rich
You argue below that development of a vaccine will take years and I am
inclined to agree.
There are, possibly, two other exit routes. One is that we get to
understand better the transmission of the virus and learn how to nail
it. I see general agreement that symptoms take five days to appear and
that people are infectious before they do and that is a key issue, the
virus being passed on unawares; but I also see much variety in what
happens next, whether a person remains infectious for days or weeks,
whether antibodies can be detected in days or they do not appear for
weeks. This is clutching at straws but something may arise to give us
better control of the spread of infection, or for what makes it lethal
for some - mostly over-fifties - and not for others.
Early on the talk was of herd immunity and that seems to be not the case
with this virus, that re-infection is possible, in which case I doubt if
a vaccine can be developed; but what has happened with other virus is
that they mutate to something less lethal and the current figures I see,
in the media, for European countries is that while the number of
infections is rising exponentially, the death rate is still bumping
along the bottom so it may be that when the first wave has run its
course, and in some countries it is still very much running, then the
second wave will be less lethal, perhaps at a level which we accept for
other infections, such a winter flu.
So yes, I do not expect an in-person meeting any time soon but would not
rule it out in perpetuity.
Tom Petch
I've been -- as many have -- following current medical research/development
closely. The fastest vaccines have ever been developed, depending how you
meaure "fastest", were Ebola (4-5 years) and Mumps (4 years). Granted,
there are more, better, faster resources being thrown at COVID-19, but
certain parts of the process are subject to acceleration and certain
parts aren't. At breakneck pace: 12-18 months seems possible, given
a few lucky breaks here and there and an awful lot of late nights.
But let's suppose, for a moment, that *tomorrow*, a vaccine which is
(a) effective and (b) safe is available. Now let's look at what has to be
done before the world is even relatively safe for travel again:
- It has to confer neutralizing immunity (so that vaccinated
people will fight off the virus) and that immunity has to be
durable (it has to last for a while).
- Then we need to manufacture 7 billion doses of it, so we have
to hope that it can be readily made in enormous quantities.
- Then we have to hope that it can be admistered orally or nasally
or via a patch, because if not: we need 7 billion syringes and
all that logistic complexity.
- Then we have to distribute it on a planetary scale.
- Then we have to hope that it doesn't need to be refrigerated,
because that adds another layer of logistic complexity.
[ As of this moment: the candidate vaccines from Pfizer, Moderna,
and Astra-Zeneca require deep-freezing. The candidate from
Johnson and Johnson doesn't, but it does require refrigeration. ]
- Then we need an army of people to administer it everywhere.
- Then we need record keeping for all of this.
- Then we need it all paid for, because it's not an option to
only give it to the people who can afford it.
- Then we need to hope that it works in one dose, because if it
requires N doses, then multiply everything I just wrote by N.
- Then, and this goes back to "durable immunity" above, we need to
hope that it confers lifelong immunity (like that to chicken pox)
not temporary immunity (like that to tetanus) because otherwise
we have repeat all of this at intervals -- forever.
- We need all of this done despite the incompetence and ignorance
and active obstruction of a number of the world's governments,
including federal/state/local governments here in the US.
- We need all of this done despite the opposition of anti-vaxxers,
conspiracy theorists, anti-science activists, etc., some of whom
have declared that they won't be vaccinated, some of whom have
declared their willingness to resort to violence, etc.
Note that eradicating smallpox took a decade even with the committed
cooperation of the entire planet. We aren't going to have that this time.
So given that, how long do you think all the steps above will take?
My guess? Most of a decade, and even then there will be backward,
scientifically-ignorant countries -- like the US -- where it still
won't be done.
To quote Phillip Hallam-Baker again (downthread): "Things are never going
to return to how they were before." That's absolutely right. It's
time to permanently abandon in-person meetings, put all resources into
making virtual ones work, do the experiments/make the mistakes/find
the solutions, and get on with it.
---rsk
