On 14/09/2020 23:49, IETF Executive Director wrote: > The background to this is firstly that we are still in the midst of a > pandemic with ongoing major disruption to global travel. A vaccine > is expected but the timing cannot be predicted and there are still > many obstacles to overcome. First, I agree with Phillip Hallam-Baker, who wrote (downthread) "Cancel the meeting as soon as possible". To me, this is obvious. Second, I wouldn't bother investing even one minute or one sentence into planning any (physical) meetings because it's wasted effort. Let me explain why I write that. I've been -- as many have -- following current medical research/development closely. The fastest vaccines have ever been developed, depending how you meaure "fastest", were Ebola (4-5 years) and Mumps (4 years). Granted, there are more, better, faster resources being thrown at COVID-19, but certain parts of the process are subject to acceleration and certain parts aren't. At breakneck pace: 12-18 months seems possible, given a few lucky breaks here and there and an awful lot of late nights. But let's suppose, for a moment, that *tomorrow*, a vaccine which is (a) effective and (b) safe is available. Now let's look at what has to be done before the world is even relatively safe for travel again: - It has to confer neutralizing immunity (so that vaccinated people will fight off the virus) and that immunity has to be durable (it has to last for a while). - Then we need to manufacture 7 billion doses of it, so we have to hope that it can be readily made in enormous quantities. - Then we have to hope that it can be admistered orally or nasally or via a patch, because if not: we need 7 billion syringes and all that logistic complexity. - Then we have to distribute it on a planetary scale. - Then we have to hope that it doesn't need to be refrigerated, because that adds another layer of logistic complexity. [ As of this moment: the candidate vaccines from Pfizer, Moderna, and Astra-Zeneca require deep-freezing. The candidate from Johnson and Johnson doesn't, but it does require refrigeration. ] - Then we need an army of people to administer it everywhere. - Then we need record keeping for all of this. - Then we need it all paid for, because it's not an option to only give it to the people who can afford it. - Then we need to hope that it works in one dose, because if it requires N doses, then multiply everything I just wrote by N. - Then, and this goes back to "durable immunity" above, we need to hope that it confers lifelong immunity (like that to chicken pox) not temporary immunity (like that to tetanus) because otherwise we have repeat all of this at intervals -- forever. - We need all of this done despite the incompetence and ignorance and active obstruction of a number of the world's governments, including federal/state/local governments here in the US. - We need all of this done despite the opposition of anti-vaxxers, conspiracy theorists, anti-science activists, etc., some of whom have declared that they won't be vaccinated, some of whom have declared their willingness to resort to violence, etc. Note that eradicating smallpox took a decade even with the committed cooperation of the entire planet. We aren't going to have that this time. So given that, how long do you think all the steps above will take? My guess? Most of a decade, and even then there will be backward, scientifically-ignorant countries -- like the US -- where it still won't be done. To quote Phillip Hallam-Baker again (downthread): "Things are never going to return to how they were before." That's absolutely right. It's time to permanently abandon in-person meetings, put all resources into making virtual ones work, do the experiments/make the mistakes/find the solutions, and get on with it. ---rsk
