Airline shares jump on hopes that worst is ending

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Airline shares jump on hopes that worst is ending

CHICAGO (Reuters) ? Shares of large U.S. airlines jumped Friday, led by a
big gain in Continental Airlines, as analysts said the worst of the
downturn may soon be over though huge losses will continue.  The American
Stock Exchange airline index rose about 11%.  "Although the industry has a
ways to go before it is healthy again, it appears that the worst may be
over for the airlines," Merrill Lynch analyst Michael Linenberg said in a
note. Merrill Lynch on Friday raised its rating on Delta Air Lines,
Northwest and Continental to "buy" from "neutral." They are the third,
fourth and fifth largest U.S. air carriers respectively. It also raised its
rating on Alaska Air Group and low-cost carrier Frontier Airlines to "buy"
from "neutral."  U.S. airlines have reported billions of dollars in losses
since the Sept. 11 attacks, including bankrupt United Airlines parent UAL
posting a $1.3 billion quarterly loss on Friday. Airlines have been hurt in
recent weeks by the war in Iraq and the pneumonia-like virus SARS. The war
hit U.S. airlines hardest on trans-Atlantic routes, while SARS has hurt
trans-Pacific travel the most.

Linenberg said he still expects U.S. airlines to report net losses of $8.2
billion in 2003, and $2.5 billion of losses in 2004, further overextending
debt-laden balance sheets. Also, late Thursday Continental said unit
revenue was flat to down 2% in April from a year earlier, better than
expected by some analysts given the war and SARS. Continental is the only
major airline that consistently reports monthly unit revenue estimates,
which are considered a rough proxy for industry results released later in
May. "Given the end of the Iraqi war, and barring potential impact of
heightened SARS fears in the U.S., we believe total industry unit revenues
have bottomed out ...," Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Jim Higgins said
in a note. SARS will likely keep Pacific revenue soft at least two more
months, most affecting UAL and Northwest, Higgins said.

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