Re: Dire times for Airlines Shareholders only (was NYTimes.com Article: Tension Mounts Between United and Machinists)

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Under US Bankruptcy and Transportation laws, the only losers with UAL
being denied an ATSB loan guarantee are shareholders and creditors.

Passengers should make out reasonably well. UAL is protected by law
from creditors, yet must keep cash-flow moving to keep ongoing
commitments. Due to the likely avoidance that some customers will have
of UAL, history tells us they are likely to lower prices to keep pax
flying. What happens when the 2nd largest airline in the world lowers
fares? Competitors match them.

American, Delta, Northwest and Continental will now be under tremendous
pressure to match fares and adjust their cost structure to match UAL's
unencumbered financial picture. They will also have the excuses to get
out from onerous contracts. Open season on labor for sure.

Until capacity (including it's underlying high-cost labor
infrastructure) can be weaned out of the industry, massive losses will
continue at UAL's biggest competitors. And since UAL's domestic
competitors are not in any financial predicament to offer decent prices
for key UAL assets  (and foreigners can't buy them) that the courts
likely will want sold, status-quo will be the name of the game.

As the President of my current client always reminds his executive
team: "You can't get to heaven by charging $100".. the frat-boys club
that competed on flying the newest 500mph tin cans in the sky is going
to be disbanded.

Matthew


On Wednesday, December 4, 2002, at 04:27 PM, WAGST@aol.com wrote:

> <<<<<Not really, as I recall ALL the employees were mad at EAL
> management who
> was
> really screwing all of them in an effort to bust all of their unions.
> There's a reason Lorenzo isnt on the scene anymore...
> Dennis>>>>>
>
>  Well, I guess it's all a mute point as the ATSB has declined the loan
> to
> UAL. I guess all those "good ole boys" at Continental and American are
> doing
> handstands right about now, or perhaps they're writing out bigger
> campaign
> fund checks to bush and his texan/republican party buddies.
>      It'll be interesting to see how other carriers are going to react
> to
> their labor agreements now... I guess it'll be open season on Labor.

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