2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2 From: Melody Whitehead <M.Whitehead@xxxxxxxxxxxx> Dear colleagues, We invite you to submit an abstract to *â??Short-term Eruption Forecasting: Monitoring data and beyond!â??* in *Theme 2: Pre and syn-erupting monitoring.* Abstract submission is open *NOW until 20th December 2024*. *More words that we hope will convince you to join us (session description):* There is an obvious need for robust and reliable models for short-term forecasts of eruptions and their hazards. However, volcanoes are complex systems with unique and evolving characteristics. This issue is amplified by the limits of instrumental data that introduces temporal-recency bias and favours eruptions over stalled eruptions. While past data for monitored eruptions exists, these are rarely sufficient at any single volcano even if time homogeneity is assumed, and most volcanoes have no monitoring records. Hydrothermal and phreatic explosions exemplify this problem, where lack of experience and fit-for-purpose monitoring systems prevent the forecast of these small yet hazardous events. We invite submissions examining short-term forecasting problems from many perspectives: - pragmatic/holistic approaches incorporating different knowledge/data, - phreatic/hydrothermal monitoring and/or detection data and networks, - environment-based hazard forecasts, - ensemble forecasting and multi-forecasting, - conceptual and theoretical models with ground-breaking potential, - philosophical musings on expectations around forecasts, - novel uses and creation of data. See you in Geneva! Stuart Mead (s.mead@xxxxxxxxxxxx), Melody Whitehead ( m.whitehead@xxxxxxxxxxxx), Jonathan Procter (j.n.procter@xxxxxxxxxxxx ), Volcanic Risk Solutions, Massey University, NZ, Michael Poland (mpoland@xxxxxxxx), Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, USGS, USA Laura Sandri (laura.sandri@xxxxxxx), INGV, Italy 2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2 ------------------------------
