5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5 From: Alastair Hodgetts <Alastair.Hodgetts@xxxxxxxx> Dear colleagues, We are thrilled to invite you to join us for the next instalment of our Ashvances in Tephra Hazard Modelling seminar series, organised by the IAVCEI Commission for Tephra Hazard Modelling. This seminar will take place at *16:00 UTC* on *25 March 2024*. Please *use this time zone converter <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/converter.html?iso=20240325T160000&p1=1440&p2=54&p3=236&p4=196&p5=248&p6=396&p7=264&p8=103&p9=224&p10=155__;!!IKRxdwAv5BmarQ!diKNOP4NeLHrofhruUagW_P4nj4cvtb7cEtansvXldKkIswAxDqSPgAv97cTa_mAHnq4_GLvWEkq_lqpSv8IVH-A6A$> to check the time of this seminar where you are*. If you would like to attend the seminar, *please register **here* <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://teams.microsoft.com/registration/sAafLmkWiUWHiRCgaTTcYQ,Tx7zMrR1skGfqJryEyGIIQ,qCqPRnw-v0K8CkXr03pOmQ,l8eTGn8rZ0aKwYWTJ26Oxg,PsBb-NIJNECB629kWod4ug,hvNdWoUZhUa4CHr1WxFHng?mode=read&tenantId=2e9f06b0-1669-4589-8789-10a06934dc61__;!!IKRxdwAv5BmarQ!diKNOP4NeLHrofhruUagW_P4nj4cvtb7cEtansvXldKkIswAxDqSPgAv97cTa_mAHnq4_GLvWEkq_lqpSv-ANEhOqg$> . It is our pleasure to welcome, *Federica Pardini* (INGV, Italy) and *Soledad Osores* (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Argentina) as our speakers. They will be presenting: *Speaker:* Federica Pardini *Talk Title:* A new workflow for real-time probabilistic assessment of volcanic hazard for tephra dispersal and its application to the 2021 Mt. Etna lava fountain episodes. *Abstract:* Starting from February 2021, Mt. Etna (Italy) experienced a period of intense explosive activity with 17 lava fountain episodes between 16 February and 1 April 2021. During the eruptive cycle, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-Osservatorio Etneo (INGV-OE) issued 62 alert notifications known as VONAs (Volcano Observatory Notice for Aviation) to inform the aeronautical authorities about the volcanic activity. We present an automated VONA-based workflow aimed at real-time assessment of the volcanic hazard due to tephra fallout at Mt. Etna. When a VONA reporting tephra emission is issued by INGV-OE, numerical simulations accounting for atmospheric and eruptive uncertainties are automatically initialized to produce probabilistic hazard maps of tephra fallout and atmospheric dispersal. We applied the workflow to three lava fountains that occurred during the 2021 eruptive cycle. To test the modelling results, we compared the simulated ground load with field data, and the extent and position of the simulated volcanic cloud with the observed or estimated volcanic cloud from the Toulouse Volcanic Ash Advisory Center. Overall, we found a good match between simulated and observed quantities (tephra loads and volcanic cloud position), especially when accurate information on eruptive conditions (column height and duration) are supplied by the VONAs. Finally, through a statistical analysis, we found that column height and wind field are fundamental in determining tephra ground accumulation. For this reason, these parameters should be constrained by observational data as accurately as possible when performing numerical simulations, especially in the line of developing operational workflows. *Speaker:* Soledad Osores *Talk Title:* Towards Quantitative Volcanic Ash information for the International Civil Aviation. *Abstract: *Volcanic ash is a hazard to aviation, and to ensure that pilots are aware of its presence, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) created in the 90s the International Aviation Volcano Watch (IAVW) and designated 9 Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC), one of them VAAC Buenos Aires. After many years of significant scientific advances, the IAVW is moving towards the next generation of quantitative products that VAACs will produce in the following years. This new service is called Quantitative Volcanic Ash (QVA) Information, which includes deterministic and probabilistic concentration results and is going to be delivered in two stages: an initial operating capability, during which the QVA will be produced only for significant volcanic ash clouds, and a second stage of a full operating capability which expects to include all the volcanic ash clouds. In this frame, the VAAC Buenos Aires modeling team works to prepare the QVA system to be deployed into operations in the following months in compliance with the first stage ICAO requirements. VAAC Buenos Aires's QVA system is based on the FALL3D model and includes an ensemble approach perturbing source parameters and meteorological fields. Case studies are tested to define the best first-guess configuration to move forward to a data fusion process. Also, as part of the international cooperation between the IAVW workflow from the Meteorological Operations Group from ICAO and the Advisory Group on Volcanic Science for Aviation Applications (AG-VSA) from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), we are working to ensure the harmonization in the QVA production and user guidance. ---- We recognise that the time of this event will not be amenable to everyone. We aim to rotate our seminars around different time zones as much as possible to reach audience members from across the globe and give everyone an equal and fair chance to participate in the seminars. We do also have a *YouTube channel <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.youtube.com/@IAVCEITHM__;!!IKRxdwAv5BmarQ!diKNOP4NeLHrofhruUagW_P4nj4cvtb7cEtansvXldKkIswAxDqSPgAv97cTa_mAHnq4_GLvWEkq_lqpSv8qocvuHQ$>* where recordings of our seminars are uploaded and can be accessed anytime. ---- We are always on the lookout for new speakers in future seminars. We aim to hold a seminar every quarter (c. 3 months), with each seminar lasting for one hour. Two speakers will be allocated 15-20-minute talks with 5-10 minutes for questions. The last 10 minutes will be kept for general discussions, e.g., how the Tephra Hazard Modelling Commission can serve you better as well as a chance to socialise/network. At least one of the talks will be by an early-career researcher, and we will use this seminar series to showcase the work of researchers with backgrounds underrepresented in volcanology. Time zones will be selected based on the location(s) of speakers and we will aim to rotate these as much as possible to reach audience members from across the globe and give everyone an equal and fair chance to participate in the seminars. We aim that by having two talks per seminar, each session will cover multiple topics, including but not limited to numerical modelling, field studies, laboratory experiments and risk communication/management. *Please use this form https://forms.gle/z7LB3TJDWauD3qCs6 <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/forms.gle/z7LB3TJDWauD3qCs6__;!!IKRxdwAv5BmarQ!ZYbhk9h-Mu55gmuoIMwvyIC8M7kzQzsnRi4gp6yn6R6g390Oz7FTA4cXbI5RMdelaV_WHtdXISDx-y_Zhg$> to register your interest in being a speaker or suggest a student/colleague*. We particularly encourage (self-) nomination of diverse and early career scientists. We look forward to seeing many of you on 25th March and to welcoming interest from some great speakers for future seminars. *Please donâ??t forget that you can sign-up to our commission and mailing list anytime via **this link* <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/webadmin?SUBED1=IAVCEITHM&A=1__;!!IKRxdwAv5BmarQ!ZYbhk9h-Mu55gmuoIMwvyIC8M7kzQzsnRi4gp6yn6R6g390Oz7FTA4cXbI5RMdelaV_WHtdXISByX8UyVQ$> . All the best, Alastair, Paul and Thomas Co-chairs of IAVCEIâ??s Tephra Hazard Modelling Commission 5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5 ------------------------------
