Dear Colleagues and Friends,
Please consider submitting a contribution to the Session S1.6 – Source term provision and quantification of uncertainty in lava flow modelling, we are organizing within the next “Cities of Volcanoes 10” Conference (Naples, Italy, 2-7 September 2018).
We are pleased to announce as confirmed invited speaker:
Prof. Andrew Harris, Université Blaise Pascal, Clermont Ferrand, France
The link for the abstract submission is https://www.citiesonvolcano
Best regards,
Annalisa, Oryaëlle, Hannah, Gaetana & Nicole
Session S1.6 – Source term provision and quantification of uncertainty in lava flow modelling
Recent advances in understanding the physical processes that control lava flow emplacement, as well as the complex feedbacks between cooling, crystallization and rheology that govern those dynamics, have driven the development of a range of tools allowing the quantitative assessment of lava flow hazards. Although the scientific community has been striving to develop numerical models that adopt a more complete description of the physical processes governing the lava flow dynamics and emplacement, the overall uncertainty in projecting lava inundation hazards has not been reduced. Numerical simulations are critically sensitive to uncertainties in input parameters, thus propagation of error through the resulting simulated flow may have a non-negligible effect on the accuracy and reliability of any projection based on the model. Uncertainty quantification is a fundamental challenge and well-quantified uncertainty should accompany model results. Two key issues still need to be addressed: the provision of source term parameters and their uncertainties, and how uncertainties in source terms combine with structural uncertainty in the model to propagate into the model outputs. Efficient answers to these questions will allow timely and reliable forecasting of lava flow hazards. This session welcomes contributions aiming at (i) describing field and remote sensing data provisions and their sources of uncertainty, (ii) evaluating model robustness through validation against real case studies, and (iii) modeling comparison between numerical simulations, analytical solutions and laboratory experiments, as well as (iv) quantifying uncertainty propagation through both forward (sensitivity analyses) and inverse (optimization/calibration) modelling in all components of volcanic hazard modelling.
Conveners: Annalisa Cappello, Oryaëlle Chevrel, Hannah Dietterich, Gaetana Ganci, Nicole Richter
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