EGU 2016. Session: Volcanic Record Completeness - NH2.4/GMPV7.5
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Dear Colleagues,
We would like to draw your attention to the session Volcanic Record Completeness - NH2.4/GMPV7.5
- at the EGU General Assembly 2016, held in Vienna (Austria) from 17 - 22 April 2016. (EGU website:
http://www.egu2016.eu/)
The abstract submission deadline is: 13 January 2016 13.00 CET.
Convener: Mark Bebbington
Co-Conveners: Susanna Jenkins, Henry Odbert, Laura Sandri, Ting Wang
Forecasting eruptions, including not just the
time onset, but the size, location and effects, is vital for the
purposes of hazard and risk assessment; However, forecasts are
critically dependent
on the quality of data available and the statistical methods employed.
Going beyond the implausibility of forecasting outcomes that are not
present in the data, inhomogeneity of the volcanic record(s) can
introduce bias and result in incorrectly calculated
forecasts and uncertainties. This inhomogeneity can be present in many
forms, but a primary concern is the completeness of the records. In
general this varies with eruption size and time (increasing in both
dimensions) and, when considering aggregated records
from multiple volcanoes, in space.
We seek contributions exploring and summarizing various aspects of this
problem, and current state-of-the-art techniques for evaluating
catalogue incompleteness and inhomogeneity, or compensating for these
effects in hazard estimation. Contributions outlining
procedures from other fields such as seismology facing similar problems
are particularly welcomed. This session is organised in conjunction
with the IAVCEI Commission on Statistics in Volcanology, which is
investigating the establishment of a working group
on volcanic catalogue completeness.
We look forward to seeing you in Vienna
Sincerely
Mark, Susanna, Henry, Laura and TingVolcano Listserv is a collaborative venture among Arizona State University (ASU), Portland State University (PSU), the Global Volcanism Program (GVP) of the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of Natural History, and the International Association for Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior (IAVCEI).
ASU - http://www.asu.edu/ PSU - http://pdx.edu/ GVP - http://www.volcano.si.edu/ IAVCEI - http://www.iavcei.org/
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