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EGU 2014. Advances in short-term hazard/risk monitoring
From: Henry Odbert <H.Odbert@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>EGU 2014. Advances in short-term hazard/risk monitoring
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Dear Colleagues,
We encourage contributions to session NH2.2, focussing on methods in volcanic hazard and risk assessment, at next year's EGU General Assembly in Vienna, Austria, 27 April - 2 May 2014. Session details below.
Deadlines:
29 November 2013: Abstract submissions for those applying for EGU financial support (see http://www.egu2014.eu/support_and_distinction.html for application details and eligibility criteria).
16 January 2014: Abstract submission deadline
Notice: An EGU-sponsored workshop
on 'Operational Techniques in Volcanic Hazard Assessment' will run just
before the General Assembly. Further details to follow shortly.
We look forward to seeing you in Vienna,
Henry Odbert, Jacopo Selva, Thea Hincks and Willy Aspinall
NH2.2/AS4.23Advances in Volcano short-term Hazard/Risk monitoring
Deadlines:
29 November 2013: Abstract submissions for those applying for EGU financial support (see http://www.egu2014.eu/support_and_distinction.html for application details and eligibility criteria).
16 January 2014: Abstract submission deadline
Notice: An EGU-sponsored workshop
on 'Operational Techniques in Volcanic Hazard Assessment' will run just
before the General Assembly. Further details to follow shortly.
We look forward to seeing you in Vienna,
Henry Odbert, Jacopo Selva, Thea Hincks and Willy Aspinall
Convener: Henry Odbert
Co-Conveners: Jacopo Selva, Thea Hincks, Willy Aspinall
URL: http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2014/session/14382
Volcanic
hazards include lava flows, debris flows and avalanches, pyroclastic
density currents, ash/tephra fall and tsunamis, all of which may have
devastating consequences for local communities and the economy,
transport and the natural environment. An important component to
understanding the behaviour of the physical processes that act during a
volcanic eruption is the development and implementation of accurate and
usable forecast models. Many volcanic processes are complex and highly
non-linear such that even minor changes in their physical properties can
significantly influence their potential impact. Such attributes present
significant challenges to the modelling of volcanic eruptive events.
Recent progress with analogue, analytical and numerical models has
offered noteworthy insights into the fundamental characteristics of
volcanic hazards. These advancements allow for better understanding,
more realistic model outcomes such that the impact of a potential
hazardous event can be correctly determined and appropriate actions
taken.
The risks posed by volcanic hazards may be estimated via Quantitative Risk Analyses (QRAs) which attempt to incorporate the likelihood of hazards and their impact footprint, according to expectations of how hazards would evolve and to the exposure and vulnerability of people and property at risk. In regions around volcanoes that are erupting or have potential to erupt, QRAs can provide a useful tool for guiding decision makers on matters relating to risk mitigation. The usefulness of any risk model depends not only on how robust it is in incorporating realistic distributions for potential hazardous events,
but also on how accurately the uncertainty of those distributions can be captured. Often the timely availability of a risk analysis and how it is adapted and updated through time are critical for the analysis
to have real world impact in a developing crisis. Combining these requirements is a major challenge in real-time volcano risk monitoring.
We invite abstracts on topics relating to the development experimental, theoretical, probabilistic and numerical studies of volcanic hazards and how output from such studies, combined with monitoring data and expert judgement can be incorporated in models
which aim to deliver risk analysis as an additional tool before and during volcanic eruptions.
The risks posed by volcanic hazards may be estimated via Quantitative Risk Analyses (QRAs) which attempt to incorporate the likelihood of hazards and their impact footprint, according to expectations of how hazards would evolve and to the exposure and vulnerability of people and property at risk. In regions around volcanoes that are erupting or have potential to erupt, QRAs can provide a useful tool for guiding decision makers on matters relating to risk mitigation. The usefulness of any risk model depends not only on how robust it is in incorporating realistic distributions for potential hazardous events,
but also on how accurately the uncertainty of those distributions can be captured. Often the timely availability of a risk analysis and how it is adapted and updated through time are critical for the analysis
to have real world impact in a developing crisis. Combining these requirements is a major challenge in real-time volcano risk monitoring.
We invite abstracts on topics relating to the development experimental, theoretical, probabilistic and numerical studies of volcanic hazards and how output from such studies, combined with monitoring data and expert judgement can be incorporated in models
which aim to deliver risk analysis as an additional tool before and during volcanic eruptions.
Volcano Listserv is a collaborative venture among Arizona State University (ASU), Portland State University (PSU), the Global Volcanism Program (GVP) of the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of Natural History, and the International Association for Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior (IAVCEI).
ASU - http://www.asu.edu/ PSU - http://pdx.edu/ GVP - http://www.volcano.si.edu/ IAVCEI - http://www.iavcei.org/
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