IAVCEI session "Forecasting short-term volcanic hazards: methods, paradigms, case studies, and practices"
From: Warner Marzocchi <warner.marzocchi@xxxxxxx>
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Dear colleagues,
I would like to draw your attention on the following session
best wishes
warner
4-3b. Forecasting short-term volcanic hazards: methods, paradigms, case studies, and practices
Warner Marzocchi* (warner.marzocchi@xxxxxxx), John Pallister, Barry Voight, Renato Solidum
Forecasting volcanic eruptions challenges scientists to develop conceptual, physical, and stochastic models for eruptive behavior and to apply these models during life-and-death situations. Although the time-spans of precursors vary, eruptions are commonly preceded by some level of volcanic unrest, ideally enabling risk mitigation on a short-time scale through evacuations. Additionally, in the minutes to days following an eruption risks of certain delayed impacts can be mitigated, e.g., by diversion of aircraft away from ash clouds or by warning downstream communities of lahar hazards. However, monitoring may be non-optimal, eruption precursors may be ambiguous, modeling simplifications and uncertain inputs can yield wide variations in forecasts of regions at risk, and volcanoes which have been "active" for years may pose challenges different from quiescent volcanoes displaying accelerating unrest. Thus the pressures for success can be immense, the timeframes for decisions a
re often short, and short-term forecasts are essential for mitigation of risk. In this session we seek contributions from volcanologists who are engaged in forecasting short-term volcanic hazards and/or in developing forecasting methods. Topics of interest include: 1. Physical and empirical descriptions of eruption precursors or real-time early eruption detection (seismic/infrasonic), deformation, gas, thermal, radar, satellite etc.) ideally, with breakthrough insights into physical mechanisms and reliability as precursor, and perceptions of how monitoring observations can change the assessment of eruption probabilities. 2. Assessing hazards by using numerical models for effusive or explosive eruptions (including lava flows, volcanic density currents and ash dispersal), with insight on model capabilities, limitations, and sources of uncertainty. 3. Case studies of scientific management of volcanic unrest that led to or did not lead to an eruption, including comparisons of for
ecasts of hazard impacts with actuality, and interactions w!
ith emer
gency managers and the populace. 4. Approaches to establish risk mitigation protocols for management of volcanic unrest, and the link between scientific assessment and decision-making.
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_______________________
Dr. Warner Marzocchi
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Roma, ITALY
Tel.: (+39)06-51860589
Fax: (+39)06-51860507
Cellphone: (+39)335-349759
e-mail: warner.marzocchi@xxxxxxx
WebPage: http://www.roma1.ingv.it/Members/marzocchi/
Dr. Warner Marzocchi
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Roma, ITALY
Tel.: (+39)06-51860589
Fax: (+39)06-51860507
Cellphone: (+39)335-349759
e-mail: warner.marzocchi@xxxxxxx
WebPage: http://www.roma1.ingv.it/Members/marzocchi/
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