L'Aquila [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]l
From: Andrew Tupper <A.Tupper@xxxxxxxxxx>
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I have greatly appreciated the informed discussion on this list over the past couple of days – congratulations to the list management for taking this unusual step.
From my perspective as a government meteorologist (who also dabbles in volcanic clouds), I would like to make a comment on some of these issues.
I believe that the L’Aquila trial is a good opportunity for the natural hazards community to discuss some trends and challenges that were already very much in evidence. A scientist who acts as a role of public official in a warning capacity has to:
a) evaluate a large array of data, and consider relevant advice from other experts, to form a professional analysis of a situation
b) make a forecast that
is weighted to the extent of the science and resulting confidence, and
c) communicate that in measured terms to decision makers
and to the public, and
d) do all that in a very
stressful and sometimes fast moving environment.
In doing that, we make all sorts of judgements about the
data that we will weigh heavily, note, or exclude, the models that we will use,
the risk that we will convey and the terms that we use to convey that risk, and
the advice that we will decline to give. This is not necessarily an easy job
and, even before L’Aquila, we were already heavily exposed if we didn't do it to the
best of our ability, and record an evidence trail so that we can demonstrate
that we've done our best. Jail might be a new factor, but public humiliation,
loss of job, career and destruction of family life of a public official are already
part of the landscape.
It follows from this that there is a considerable gap in responsibility between being a scientist with an expert opinion and a scientific official with an expert opinion. In some circumstances, that gap may be not well understood, not accounted for by Government or by scientists, and therefore not addressed. For example:
e) if a scientist assumes or accepts responsibility for giving advice to decision makers, do they get any legal, communications (media), management or other training?
f) is the mandate for the scientist or their agency defined in legislation?
g) is there an *operational* government-funded agency that supports this work? Does it have 24/7 rosters and staffing for operational work? Does it have a contingency plan if operations are interrupted? Does it meet a Quality Management Standard? Does it pay overtime for staff who put in extra hours?
h) does Government support the work of the agency by treating it as the authoritative voice?
Some of the questions above are expensive to answer positively. In this regard, I would like to suggest that some of the experiences of the World Meteorological Organization, the UN specialist technical organization which mainly deals with weather, climate, and water issues, might be useful to the volcanological and seismic communities. From my own experiences working with the International Airways Volcano Watch, there are many points of connection. The knowledge within the WMO Quality Management Framework, and the other Programme pages on the WMO site at http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/amp/ , represents a very considerable investment of time in international discussion and debate, and some of the agencies involved also have warning responsibility for geophysical hazards. Of course, the IUGG, which brings together all the relevant scientific disciplines, is also a wonderful forum for such matters.
Kind regards,
Andrew Tupper
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Dr Andrew Tupper Regional Director
Australian Bureau of Meteorology | Northern Territory
Darwin VAAC Operations (24/7):
T +61 8 8920 3833 | darwin.vaac@xxxxxxxxxx
Certified to AS/NZS ISO 9001:2008 Quality Management Standard
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