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PhD position at the University of Auckland, New Zealand
From: "Jan M. Lindsay" <j.lindsay@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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The School of Environment (formerly the School of Geography, Geology and Environmental Science) at the University of Auckland, New Zealand, together with GNS Science, invites applications from outstanding students to fill a fully funded 3-yr PhD position on:
The interface between probabilistic hazard and risk assessment and volcanic risk and crisis management
Supervision team:
Jan Lindsay, JC Gaillard (University of Auckland), Gill Jolly (GNS Science), David Johnston (Joint Centre for Disaster Research, GNS Science/Massey University) and Warner Marzocchi and Laura Sandri (INGV, Italy).
Project summary:
Probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis (PVHA) is still a relatively new tool for volcanologists, and as a consequence there has been little testing of how probabilistic hazard assessments (and probabilities) are understood and used by civil authorities and affected communities. The overall aim of this project is to use selected New Zealand volcanoes as case studies to develop PVHAs and investigate how these can most effectively be utilized in volcanic risk and crisis management. The approach will be to use recently developed statistical “E-tools” such as BET_EF and BET_VH to combine volcanological data (e.g. frequency-magnitude relationships, historical eruptions, past vent locations, eruption styles) with models, expert opinion and present and past monitoring observations to develop probabilistic hazard models. The efficacy of the models thus derived will then be evaluated through a series workshops, discussions and semi-structured interviews with key end users of PVHAs (civil defense, local government and communities), to gauge how these are can be best understood and used.
Research goals:
To set up a PVHA (based on the BET code) for each of the New Zealand case studies and evaluate the effectiveness of these for ongoing/evolving assessment of hazards by comparing them with other existing methods such as RiskScape and Hazus;
To ‘test’ BET_EF as a forecasting tool for some New Zealand volcanoes by applying it to past historical eruptions (e.g. Ruapehu 95/96);
To use the eruption forecasting data and PVHA obtained above to identify appropriate risk thresholds in New Zealand that can be applied during volcanic risk management; in particular, investigate the potential for setting decision-making thresholds by combining BET-based probabilistic hazard assessment and eruption forecasting with cost/benefit analysis (for evacuation, for example);
To investigate how the civil defense stakeholders and local communities understand and use probabilities and how they translate into loss of life risk, key infrastructure losses and behaviour in the face of an eruption.
General information:
Applicants should have a background in volcanology and an interest in quantifying and communicating hazard. The PhD position includes a 3-year stipend of NZ $25,000 per annum (tax free), university fees and research costs (including any field costs, and travel to national and international conferences). Applicants should provide a CV and include contact details of 2-3 referees and a short letter of motivation and research skills. Applications due by 30 June 2010 with an expected start date by January 2011.
Applications and requests for more information should be emailed to Jan Lindsay: j.lindsay@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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