MVO Weekly Report 28 November - 5 December 2008

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Montserrat Volcano Observatory

Weekly Report for the period 28 November 2008 - 5 December 2008

Activity at the Soufrière Hills Volcano increased with a series of
four explosive events which started on the evening of Tuesday 2
December.

The first and largest event occurred at approximately 9:35 pm local
time on 2 December without any warning or precursory seismic activity.
The event started with a small dome collapse which was followed,
within 15 seconds, by a pyroclastic flow. There was then an explosion,
possibly two explosions, within 90 seconds. The explosion sent large
incandescent blocks up to a mile from the dome and these were seen
scattered over the north-western slope of Gages Mountain. Some of
these were later seen to have generated substantial impact craters.
There were no reports of air-fall pumice or ballistics in inhabited
areas.

The explosion and pyroclastic flow both generated ash columns which
were accompanied by lightning strikes. The ash is estimated to have
reached a height of 40,000 feet above sea level. The ash was blown to
the west over Plymouth and there was no ash fall in inhabited areas.

The pyroclastic flow was on the western flank of the volcano. It
travelled down Gages Valley and then into both Lee's Yard and
Plymouth. It is estimated that the flow reached the sea in Plymouth
within two minutes of the start of the event. Some structures in
Plymouth were set on fire and could be seen burning from Salem for
several hours afterwards, with one fire near the Secondary School
lasting well into the next day.

The pyroclastic flow generated extensive pyroclastic surges. These
contain hot ash and gas but no rock fragments and are not restricted
by valleys in the way that pyroclastic flows are. One pyroclastic
surge rose up the south face of St. George's Hill and only just failed
to go over the top of the hill. Other surges reached Aymers Ghaut in
the south and Richmond in the north. The surges set fire to trees,
bushes and pieces of timber throughout the affected areas.

The deposits from the pyroclastic flow appear to contain very little
pumice, indicating the source material came from the dome and was not
fresh lava. This is consistent with a dome collapse. The subsequent
explosions would have been triggered when the collapse exposed regions
of hot, pressurised lava. Due to cloud cover, it has not yet been
possible to estimate how much of the dome was involved in the
collapse.

The subsequent three explosive events were smaller than the first. The
second event was an explosion at approximately 8:43 pm on 3 December
which scattered incandescent blocks over the north-west side of Gages
Mountain. The third event, at 4:22 pm on 4 December did not appear to
eject any ballistics, but sent a forceful emission of ash to heights
of up to 15,000 feet. Neither of these events generated pyroclastic
flows.

The fourth event was similar to the first, although smaller. It
occurred at approximately 5:41 am on Friday 5 December. The explosion
again scattered incandescent blocks over the north-west face of Gages
Mountain and a pyroclastic flow was generated in the Gages Valley.
This travelled towards Plymouth but does not appear to have reached
the sea. The ash cloud from this event rose almost vertically above
the volcano and drifted slowly to the north-west over Olveston and
Woodlands. There were no reports of ash fall. There was a subsequent
small but forceful ash emission at approximately 8:18 am.

Since the first explosive event, there have also been three small
pyroclastic flows in the Gages Valley. These occurred at approximately
09:01 am on 3 December, 5:32 am on 4 December and 00:06 am on 5
December. These pyroclastic flows had a different character to the two
flows that were associated with the explosive events. They were
relatively slow moving and did not travel more than about 2 miles from
the dome.

In the periods between these events, the volcano has been more active
than beforehand, with near-continuous emission of ash-laden vapour.
There has also been an increase in seismic activity. MVO recorded 35
volcano-tectonic, 4 hybrid and 19 long-period events as well as 34
rockfalls during the week. There were also two episodes of continuous
low-level seismic tremor. Almost all of these were after the explosive
event on 2 December.

There were no measurements of sulphur dioxide emissions during the
week due to an equipment malfunction. Measurements resumed on Friday 5
December.

There have been no pyroclastic flows in the Tar River or White River
valleys associated with this activity. There was one pyroclastic flow
in the Tar River Valley at approximately 3:54 pm on Friday 28 November
which reached the sea. This flow would have been generated by a
collapse from the steep cliff on the eastern side of the dome and is
not associated with the subsequent activity on the west side of the
dome.

Due to the presence of cloud cover, it is not yet possible to give a
full description of the events of this past week. However, it is clear
that the explosive event on Tuesday night has opened and enlarged the
previously quiet vent on the north-west flank of the dome. All the ash
emissions and explosions have come from an area around this vent. The
three sluggish pyroclastic flows in the Gages Valley may be associated
with extrusive activity in the Gages vent, which was opened up by the
explosion on 28 July 2008.

If the activity continues at about the same level, the volcanic
hazards will be restricted to zones C and V of the Hazard Level
System. The position of the north-western vent raises the possibility
of pyroclastic flows on the northern flank of the dome, but there has
been no indication of any activity yet.

The Hazard Level remains at 3.

The activity this week has demonstrated that explosions and
pyroclastic flows do occur without any warning whatsoever. Mudflows
can also occur without warning, especially when there is heavy
rainfall.

Additional information on the Soufrière Hills Volcano and the Hazard
Level System can be found at the MVO website:  http://www.mvo.ms.

Roderick Stewart
Acting Director, Montserrat Volcano Observatory
tel: +1 664 491 5647, +1 664 491 5726 (direct line)
home: +1 664 491 3139
cell: +1 664 495 0743
fax: +1 664 491 2423
email: rod@xxxxxx

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