Fall AGU 2008 Reminder: "Failed" Magmatic Eruptions: When Unrest Leads to Quiescence (V27)

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From: Diana Roman <droman@xxxxxxxxxxx>
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The submission deadline is approaching! Please consider making a
contribution to the following session at the upcoming 2008 AGU Fall
Meeting by Wednesday, September 10, 2359 UTC:


V27: "Failed" Magmatic Eruptions: When Unrest Leads to Quiescence

When a volcano becomes restless, one of the primary questions asked of
scientists is whether the unrest and underlying processes will lead to a
magmatic eruption. "Failed" magmatic eruptions, where magma comes close
to erupting but ultimately fails to reach the surface, can have
significant negative consequences, particularly if the associated unrest
leads to erroneous forecasts. Over the last several decades "failed"
magmatic eruptions have been preceded by various combinations of
increased degassing and thermal output, phreatic eruptions, shallow
earthquake swarms (some with felt and/or low-frequency events), and
notable ground deformation. Unequivocal cases of failed magmatic
eruptions include Soufrière Guadeloupe (1975-76) and Akutan, Alaska
(1996). Arguable cases include Mount Baker, Washington (1975), Iliamna,
Alaska (1996), Iwate, Japan (1998), Deception Island, Antarctica (1998),
Fourpeaked, Alaska (2006), Huila, Colombia, (2007), and many others. A
few such cases are well studied, but many are poorly documented in the
literature; thus details of these events are often unavailable to
scientists for comparison to an ongoing episode of unrest. One of the
primary goals of this session is to highlight examples of volcanic
unrest that ultimately failed to produce a magmatic eruption. Another
goal is to explore possible discriminants that could indicate whether
unrest will or won't lead to eruption, along with physical models for
failure or arrest of ascending or convecting magma. We encourage
contributions from both observational and theoretical perspectives.


Invited presenters:

Francois Beauducel, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris
Takeshi Nishimura, Tohoku University
John Power, USGS Alaska Volcano Observatory
Cynthia Werner, USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory


Session conveners:

Seth Moran
U.S. Geological Survey - Cascades Volcano Observatory
smoran@xxxxxxxx

Chris Newhall
Earth Observatory of Singapore - Nanyang Technological University
cnewhall@xxxxxxxxxx

Diana Roman
University of South Florida
droman@xxxxxxxxxxx

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