*********************************************************************** From: Warner Marzocchi <warner.marzocchi@xxxxxxx> *********************************************************************** Dear colleagues, I would like to bring to your attention a workshop that will be held during Cities on Volcanoes 5 meeting in November at Shimabara. The workshop is free. In order to organize the best workshop, it would be helpful to receive an email with the interest to participate (warner.marzocchi@xxxxxxx). Regards Warner Marzocchi *********** WORKSHOP Eruption forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: Moving from theory to practice with the software package BET_EF DATE AND VENUE November 18 (Sun.), 3:30 PM, Shimabara Fukko Arena. The worksop will last 2-3 hours. Conveners: Warner Marzocchi and Jacopo Selva; INGV Contact person: W. Marzocchi: warner.marzocchi@xxxxxxx This workshop aims to present BET_EF, a free software package (OS Windows) that allows graphically supported computing of short- to long-term eruption forecasting by merging all the available information, such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, monitoring measures, and any kind of past data, all of them provided by the end user. BET_EF deals with short- and long-term forecasting; therefore, it can be useful in many practical aspects, such as land-use planning and during volcanic emergencies. Part of the workshop will be devoted to the integration of the BET_EF probabilistic forecasting with a cost/benefit analysis. This step is pivotal in order to establish objective rules for decision making, as, for instance, to decide the call for an evacuation. The workshop will be organized in FOUR parts: PART 1. A short introduction to the BET model: We show the technical details of the code and its practical utility. PART 2. How to install BET_EF: The code will be distributed for free to participants. We will also assist participants with laptops. PART 3. How BET works: Several tutorials will be run to show how volcanological information is uploaded and how BET_EF works in practical cases, i.e., during emergencies. PART 4. Presentation of a scheme that integrates BET_EF probabilistic forecast with a cost/benefit analysis. The scheme maps continuous probabilities into a binary evacuation/no evacuation decision, and, in general, it can be used to set objective rules for taking any kind of mitigation action. _____________________________________________________ Dr. Warner Marzocchi Co-chairman WOVO (World Organization of Volcano Observatories) INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Roma, ITALY Tel.: (+39)06-51860589 Fax: (+39)06-51860507 Cellphone: (+39)335-349759 e-mail: warner.marzocchi@xxxxxxx WebPage: http://www.bo.ingv.it/~warner ============================================================== To unsubscribe from the volcano list, send the message: signoff volcano to: listserv@xxxxxxx, or write to: volcano-request@xxxxxxxx To contribute to the volcano list, send your message to: volcano@xxxxxxxx Please do not send attachments. ==============================================================
