Moritz, thanks for pointing that out. Your suggested 10 minutes seems a bit short, though..
I would not set ip_conntrack_tcp_timeout_established to any thing lower than tcp_fin_timeout. I would be tempted to set ip_conntrack_tcp_timeout_established to approximately double what tcp_fin_timeout is set to. I don't know of any reason that conntrack would need to keep things for twice tcp_fin_timeout, but I'd rather be safe than sorry. Besides even double of tcp_fin_timeout is CONSIDERABLY less than 5 days.
Grant. . . .