Le 14/02/2020 à 12:13, Vittorio Bertola a écrit :
Il 13/02/2020 20:23 Belotti, Sergio (Nokia - IT/Vimercate)
<sergio.belotti@xxxxxxxxx> ha scritto:
It would be interesting to know which type of information you have
to judge that in this case the risk is not big. I'm only an
engineer not a medical doctor and I'd rather to stay cautious
before to quote the level of risk. Yesterday 14000 new infected in
Hubei region and more than 200 deads...just for info, right now.
To you, and to anyone else who understands Italian, I recommend
watching this call with Ilaria Capua, the best known Italian
virologist, currently at the University of Florida:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oghOgET51gg
It's a 45 minute footage including talk and q&a.
The important interviewed lady seems to be situated in an airport
because some times she is dusturbed by public announcements in the back.
She wears auricular headphones, she seeems to talk on a smartphone,
like on skype.
The uninterrupted verbiage starts at 1:51 (1min 51s). She is in Tampa,
she says she does not wear a mask ("masquerina"). She did see one
masquerina, but otherwise no; maybe some asiatic students yes.
Let us start with the virus that infected humans, arrives from animals,
derives from 'pesta bovina', in general, after thousand years, also
about toxoplasmosa, about ladies (not a virus, but parasite), also rabia
(dogs) also present and killing 100% infected (slow the talk, raise
index finger up - means to really watch out for that) - example given
and stress to remember this; back to our CV, here is another story about
ebola (very important) - a story in Guinea, a time neoliberalist,
de-forestation, planting palms, animals changed, operators of palm trees
and their wives and ladies, the first case ebola 2014 because lady
happened something, our humans invasion of our ecosystem provokes
things, now bomb with CV, but also preceding CVs, this one is the 3rd,
these are very rare events (not like the one from dog) but jump from
species to species (to human) is very rare, then it is amplified by
factors, eg.. in megalopolis, food habits, e.g. in China all is eaten
with ... 4 legs, markets, live animals, normally not in contact with
human, in 2003 I had the opportunity to ..., the mechanism, the human,
phone call, the 'zibetto to human' entered in a 'albergo', this infested
all businessmen, it was much easier then to block the spread (protect),
the difference substantial in Hong Kong, it protected many, but killed
cca 800 and the Italian Medic who (died), and percents, was a great
success of Public Health, the second CV was and went through
'hidro-medali',
then the 3rd CV, now this one, exclude animals of cold blood, the virus
did a first jump of species, (a first tour), and then, human-to-human,
...., then once started, it then runs fast (like horses, 'galopper',
fr.), this virus is characterized by a a very sustained transmisibility,
not the polmics, point 1: try to ... new virus, difficult to diagnostic,
you dont know its new, it comes from some patients, calculate different
culture, arrives a group of 10 persons in DEcember, influence/influenza
is this, then let's say you, then you realize its not influenza, then
understand it's new, one more week but during that time, New Year, then
citizens, families, holidays, then quaranteen, then a good part are in
fact, then risk,
lets focus on ..., I think the Chinese responded exemplarily when they
understood the gravity, this without doubt it is a problem difficult to
understand, it does not have an immediate cause, these are emergencies
of all imprevisibility, to understand whats happening, then there are
voices that say that so many Chinese are dead etc etc, Sincerely - I
dont know, but I think that hundreds and hundredds persons that are
dead, lets say it's a signal to..., (gestures with palms around), can
not hide, I think when one is facing death, the importance of life, the
means of communication we have today, STefano Quintarelli can answer
better,
about vaccins, maybe 6months a year, lets say proofs of labo,
verification, then needs to test, and then produce large quantities,
calculate, for 2009 influenza vaccins (techno advanced already was) it
was... For therapy, we are a bit, I would like to reassure that
coronavirus, diarhee, 1/4 of cases, dont exist in nature CV that is
grave, not 'pone', not 'gato', I think we should avoid cases of
apocalypse, we should look in rationality, only so can we succeed, so
many milliards (billions in US English), laughs. We should then think
that contagiosity is very rapid, but it risks block primary services
(rail, airports) if these close, then hospitals full, but then this is
big fear, fear of loosing credibility of institutions, this is the
ultimate cause that... emergency moments, authority, the space and time
of improvisation is..., so 2 words, 200.000 something, or millions
infected, this would change completely the scenario to look at
mortality, because the mortality reported today is 2% of infected,
20.000, millions, we should not talk of hundreds and hundreds, these are
persons in China that are not, that are persons old, hunger, very poor,
yes it's gigantic but China economy national,
then arrives conclusion: today we need to rethink the Salvation, along
centuries the cause of saving spirit, then after much lateness we
arrived mental ilness is agreed, the Salvation will be interpreted, like
in Antiquity, all is interconected, air water fire earth, this will be
our Salvation, reason our direction, we depend on water (cholera
moustiques), air (), fire (sun, heat), earth (animals). So I think I do
advertisement of free man who must be free to move, in our community the
freedom I want to tell how this vision Antiquity, through instruments
digital and Big Data and AI we will reinvent our Salvation on Earth, our
Salvation is part of a system of Salvation, dont try to kill moustique
to only still get Zika, dont continue to use antibiotics like until now,
for CV - we cant continue invade our environment and create innatural
connexions, these creates problmes of species. Now I drink some water.
Then at 26:50 starts question-response.
Alex
It provides a much better, more informed and more rational
perspective than the media.
By the way, perhaps organizing a similar online session with a
qualified scientist in the field could help people in making up their
mind.
