The world will continue to rotate just fine, without me prognosticating
about the universal deployment of IPv6, but I did want to agree with Jari on
one point:
But I would argue this does not really matter so much. I think we have
already run out of the addresses, with consequent implications to
applications, end-to-end nature of the Internet, and business planning.
Just as an example, one mobile operator who participates in the IETF IPv6
and NAT work has half a billion subscribers. Think their planning revolves
around asking the RIRs for an address to each customer, as they are
rapidly transitioning from circuit switched voice to voip and
browser/email/google/facebook-on-everyone's-device model? Arguing about
exact dates or the level of catastrophe seems like rearranging the deck
chairs on Titanic. Things will be bad. We should focus on changing the
direction and making things better.
I agree with Jari - doesn't matter. I suspect that there is enough variation
in IP address inventories, subscriber growth, and a variety of other
factors, that trying to figure out when "we" will "run out" of IPv4 prefixes
isn't helpful - the range of values for "we" and "run out" add too much
variation to the discussion for it to converge.
The good news is that (much like the Titanic), we don't all run into an
iceberg and sink at the same time, so we'll probably learn a lot from every
sinking, and every sinking will probably motivate at least some people who
are still afloat.
The bad news is that we all need to keep an eye out for icebergs, and 90
percent of icebergs are underwater :D
Thanks,
Spencer
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