Re: IPv6 will never fly: ARIN continues to kill it

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Thus spake "Iljitsch van Beijnum" <iljitsch@xxxxxxxxx>
On 19-sep-2007, at 16:40, Stephen Sprunk wrote:

[provider independent addresses]

However, it is the only solution available today that the operational folks consider viable. The IETF promised something different and has yet to deliver, so PI was passed and deployed. If the IETF does eventually deliver something viable, the RIRs will consider deprecating PI.

And that would be the same kind of consideration that has gone towards "deprecating" the holding of nearly 0.5% of the total IPv4 address space by a single organization? Despite the fact that
we're quickly running out of available IPv4 space and the number
of organizations involved is less than 50, visible efforts have yet
to materialize.

ARIN's counsel has told ARIN that it is unclear if they have legal standing to revoke legacy assignments. And, for the record, there are over 50,000 of them, not less than 50.

Also, projections show that even if we reclaimed _every_ legacy assignment (many of which are still in use and even justified under current policy), it would only delay exhaustion six months to a year; it is felt that doing so is not generally worth the effort and would certainly cost an absurd amount in legal fees, and the litigation is likely to last beyond the exhaustion date anyways (with no solid guess as to who would win in the end).

So I doubt anything is going to happen once a few tens of
thousands of organizations have cast their IPv6 PI addresses in stone. Those prefixes will be around for a _long_ time.

The situation is different with v6 because all PI assignments are subject to a contract that allows ARIN to revoke them at any time with a policy change. If a viable alternative emerged, ARIN could stop making new PI assignments, deprecate the existing ones, and drop them after a few years' transition period. OTOH, the alternative that appears may be some novel idea that allows widespread use of PI without injecting routes into the DFZ, in which case it won't be necessary to deprecate it but rather to make it easier to get.

Those who propose shim6 or similar solutions need to expect it'll take another decade after the ink is dry for their solutions to be considered viable

Curious how so many people know exactly that so many
transitions will take a decade or more, without ANY precedents
to base this on.

Any transition that requires a change to the _host protocol stack_ can be expected to take that long, based on how long it took to get core v6 support implemented and enabled by default in Windows. It's still unusable for the vast majority of consumers because they're behind CPE NAT devices without 6to4 support. Kudos to Apple for being the first to ship a usable v6 CPE box; hopefully other vendors will follow within a few years.

S

Stephen Sprunk         "God does not play dice."  --Albert Einstein
CCIE #3723         "God is an inveterate gambler, and He throws the
K5SSS dice at every possible opportunity." --Stephen Hawking


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