> (i) there is every reason to expect a run on remaining > addresses at some point, whether induced by "public > coverage", "larcenous providers", ISP or RIR anxieties, > or something else. In other words HIGH PUBLIC PROFILE. Interestingly, this roughly coincides with increased public concern over network abuse, reevaluation of homeland security activities, and the timeframe in which IPv6 services could reasonably be introduced. The time is ripe for the work, even if it does ultimately fail as some suggest. Nevertheless, an IETF WG discussion of what should be in the SOHO gateway is likely to lead to products on the market. > (ii) it is reasonable to expect that by the time such a > stampede gets serious (or somewhat before that), the > RIRs and possibly ICANN will try to change policies to > damp it. This has just begun with someone making a proposal in APNIC http://www.apnic.net/docs/policy/discussions/prop-046-v001.txt > As I have also suggested earlier, a different way of figuring > out when we have run out of IPv4 space is not to look at when > the last address block is allocated but at when the perception > or claim of scarcity begins to justify bad behavior (in pricing, > protocol design, etc.). By that criterion, we ran out several > years ago and can stop having that particular part of the > discussion. I am of the opinion that there will be no hysteria, no market pricing, just a move towards IPv6 because over the past few years, all Service Providers have been upgrading to v6 capable devices, and enterprises have also, at a somewhat slower pace, been shifting towards v6 capable OSes. They haven't been USING IPv6, but a lot of the capital costs necessary have already been invested. > When it does come -- when a lot of > people reach that conclusion -- it is reasonable to predict a > catastrophic change in allocation requests and presumably in > allocations. Once that occurs, the projections based on models > of past behavior are trash and IPv4 space will be in very bad > trouble... probably in a matter of months and not years. That day will never come because IPv4 addresses can never be in such short supply. There is fat in the system, outside the RIRs' view and control. The hoarding behavior happened years ago, before the telecom collapse. One can always use NAT tricks (double NAT) in some areas, "borrow" DOD and other address space such as a nice /8 that was recently allocated exclusively for use in a Japanese cable network. The net is diverse enough that many people won't care if DoD machines or Japanese consumers can't reach them. This is an unmeasured and unstudied area. I still believe that the time is right for an IETF WG to define SOHO gateway requirements for IPv6 networks because IPv4 wind-down will cause more people to take a serious look at how and why to deploy IPv6. One single good idea in a SOHO gateway document could be enough to tip the scales and make a business case for IPv6 services. --Michael Dillon _______________________________________________ Ietf@xxxxxxxx https://www1.ietf.org/mailman/listinfo/ietf