well, the stock market is very volatile so it won't be good for the reference. If you use my company for calculation, you probably think VPN has bigger market than Routers does ;-) my company makes integrated firewall & vpn box and revenue last year is 85M. we only have small market shares comparing to those big companies. So the market for IPsec is definitely much bigger than 300M. What I see here is IPsec does have its fault but users are using it because it does solve some of their problems. As long as we keep improving it then it will expand to new applications and get wider deployment. It's getting more fun these days cause more and more applications try to use it. iSCSI is an example. Michael -----Original Message----- From: Alex Alten [mailto:Alten@attbi.com] Sent: Monday, March 18, 2002 8:57 PM To: Michael Choung Shieh; Steven M. Bellovin; William Allen Simpson Cc: ietf@ietf.org; ipsec@lists.tislabs.com Subject: RE: 10 years and no ubiquitous security Sigh. I knew I shouldn't have put a dollar figure in my response. Michael you have to take those reports with a grain of salt, dollar amounts tend to be meaningless. At the risk of getting nailed here's how I did my math. Red Creek last year shipped about 1% of the hw IPsec VPN boxes worldwide. They were bought for about $10M (if I remember correctly). Thus implicitly valuing all the firms, divisions of firms, etc., at about $1B. Generally speaking in a growth industry you pay about 5x revenues. So this means the industry last year probably had about $200M in revenues. I may be off a bit, maybe its $300M, but that's about how much money is being paid by real customers per year. It's not a huge market, at least not based on my back-of- the-envelope calculations. If I'm wrong then I'm sure one of your marketing guys can correct me with more accurate numbers. - Alex At 07:56 PM 3/18/2002 -0800, Michael Choung Shieh wrote: > >FYI. Dedicated VPN HW Hits $1.3 Billion as shown at >http://www.infonetics.com/resources/quarterly_worldwide_market_share_foreca s >ts_4q01.htm It has a sizeable installation out there, though it does have >some large deployment issues. > >Michael Shieh > >-----Original Message----- >From: Alex Alten [mailto:Alten@attbi.com] >Sent: Monday, March 18, 2002 5:26 PM >To: Steven M. Bellovin; William Allen Simpson >Cc: ietf@ietf.org; ipsec@lists.tislabs.com >Subject: Re: 10 years and no ubiquitous security > >[... skip...] > > It seems to have decided, IPsec has settled into a fairly modest >VPN market niche ($200M/yr revenues or so?). It is not turned on by >(or not available on) at least 99% of the Internet hosts. > >[... skip....] > >- Alex > > >-- > >Alex Alten >Alten@ATTBI.com > -- Alex Alten Alten@ATTBI.com