[I sent this off to the international FOSS and Education mailing list
and then decided it is relevant to this list as well. Apologies to any
dual subscribers. - Bryant]
Dynamic Mixed Duopoly: A Model Motivated by Linux vs. Windows
[Interview with authors at - http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/4834.html]
Begin forwarded message:
From: Bryant Patten <bmp@xxxxxxxxxx>
Date: September 11, 2006 12:50:26 AM EDT
To: Open Source and Education <discussion@xxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [FOSSEd Discussion] Harvard Linux vs. Microsoft Study
Reply-To: Open Source and Education <discussion@xxxxxxxxxx>
Dynamic Mixed Duopoly: A Model Motivated by Linux vs. Windows
[Interview with authors at - http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/4834.html]
Okay - so I find lots about this interview fascinating (don't have
access to the study). Perhaps the most fascinating is that Harvard is
asking this question.
Here is the summary:
"Ultimately, the authors believe, neither side is likely to be forced
from the battlefield—Microsoft has too much market share and OSS offers
too many benefits for users. But there are strategies each can use
successfully against the other, as they detail in this e-mail
interview."
But there are a few fascinating tidbits (IMHO) relevant to the focus of
this mailing list (FOSS and Education):
"...Having obtained this basic result, we investigate the conditions
that will warrant that Linux ends up forcing Windows out. We do this by
modifying the model in two ways. First of all, we look at the effect of
having buyers such as governments and some large corporations committed
to deployment of Linux in their organizations. We call such buyers
strategic. In addition to cost-related reasons, governments back Linux
because having access to the source code allows them to verify that
sensitive data is treated securely. Binary code makes it hard to figure
out who has access to information flowing in a network. Companies such
as IBM, in contrast, back Linux because they see in OSS one way to
diminish Microsoft's dominance. We find that the presence of strategic
buyers together with Linux's sufficiently strong demand-side learning
results in Windows being driven out of the market. This may be one main
reason why Microsoft has been providing chunks of Windows' source code
to governments."
So government (and in this case I would strongly add schools as a
particularly important part of government) adoption results in a
Windows loss.
"...Second, we look at the role of cost asymmetries. In the base model
we assume that the cost structures of Windows and Linux for the
development, distribution, and support of software coincide. A natural
question is then whether the central result that Windows survives in
the long-run equilibrium regardless of the speed of Linux's demand-side
learning persists if there are cost asymmetries. We find that because
OSS implies lower profits for Microsoft, the larger the cost
differences are between Linux and Windows, the less able Microsoft is
to guarantee the survival of Windows."
My graduate background is in computer simulation and believe me, the
results of these models is significantly directed by the underlying
assumptions. I strongly question their decision to have 'the
development, distribution and support' costs coincide on the base
model. Other questions to investigate
1)While they seem to invoke the value of the MS Office suite, they make
no reference to the hundreds (thousands) of free FOSS programs.
2) How does the emerging international user community figure into all
this?
3) The only FOSS benefit he discusses is demand-side learning - the
ability to modify code.
The interviewer asked " From your modelling, what can Microsoft do
strategically to remain competitive against a product that is argued to
be of better quality, is updated more frequently, and is free?" and
after essentially saying become more FOSS-like, another part of the
response was:
"Price discriminate. Give Windows and applications away to schools and
universities so that users build their file libraries on Microsoft, not
Linux."
And finally I love the following line, buried in the middle of a
paragraph:
"... We find that while a monopoly of Linux is always preferable (from
the point of view of societal welfare) to a Windows monopoly,..."
Which makes me think of the Jim Wales quotes that Kathryn brought to
this list:
"I would like to think education is a precursor to everything that is
to come in life. Schools are places for education and that means more
than simply providing training in software packages."
and
"Schools are places where our values and philosophies are on
show.
They are places where we create and recreate society."
Obviously preaching to the choir here but FOSS and Education is SUCH an
important issue....
Bryant
_______________________________________________
Discussion mailing list
Discussion@xxxxxxxxxx
http://fossed.org/mailman/listinfo/discussion_fossed.org
_______________________________________________
Fedora-education-list mailing list
Fedora-education-list@xxxxxxxxxx
http://www.redhat.com/mailman/listinfo/fedora-education-list
