On 03/22/2012 10:42 PM, Kevin Kofler wrote:
Przemek Klosowski wrote:
Fair enough, but the trends are well established, and the data are
for shipments so the actual deployed numbers are compounded (flat
shipments translate to steady growth, linear or faster shipment
growth means quadratic or maybe even exponential growth).
Quite the opposite, shipments are related to the first (discrete)
derivative of active deployments, which will necessarily amplify the
effects: if the number of shipments decreases, that just means that
growth in deployments is slowing down, not that the number of
deployments decreases.
I think we're saying the same thing here; the point is that compounding
amplifies even small trends.
A computer is often a per-household device. A cellphone is per
person, or even multiple devices per person (e.g. multiple phones
with different contracts, or a phone and a tablet, etc.). So the
total number is necessarily going to be larger without there being
more users.
Of course, but numbers are numbers; we just have to pay attention to
lighter, mobile formfactors. It is the same reasoning as in the desktop
vs. server dilemma 15 years ago: you could say that 'servers are
per-company devices', so Linux has been concentrating on the desktops,
where the numbers were---while still paying attention to servers. As we
know it's a good idea to optimize for both desktop and server; they
aren't contradictory.
As I wrote responding to Nicolas, the GUI interaction concepts from
mobiles are relevant to all platforms, and it is appropriate to think
ahead and seek a model that serves both. Microsoft also seems to follow
this direction, and implements it, however awkwardly, in Windows 8.
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